More on the windy early week storm. It will sweep northward with a gusty backside circulation likely to impact Chicago
The system is spin up as to independent impulses embedded within two separate jet streams–one initially over the Upper Plains and Midwest; the second running through the southern Plains and Deep South— “phase” or combine into a single cut off low pressure aloft which is to inspire storm development late this weekend in the western Gulf of Mexico.
New Friday runs of the National Weather Service “GFS” model and the European Centre’s operational models are in. I’m posting the latest SPAGHETTI PLOT of projected surface storm tracks–forecasts which parallel earlier predictions.
The guidance on this storm has been very stable lending increasing confidence that the models are in fact onto just how this system may develop and is likely to track. And several things about it and its potential impact on the Greater Chicago area are increasingly clear:
- Its greatest impact on our Chicago weather will be winds likely build in gusts 40 to 45 mph Monday
- Large amounts of snow don’t appear likely in Chicago proper though the city and extreme northeast Illinois may see lake effect snow showers late Sunday night, Monday and possibly into Monday night
- Lake effect snows in northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan, on other hand, appear likely to be more prolonged (i.e. Monday into Tuesday morning) and it is there the system’s most important accumulations occur though it’s too early for precise figures. The early read on this suggests several inches are to occur with wind blowing whatever might fall around. This ISN’T LOOKING LIKE a “super storm”. But enough snow and wind may occur than conditions may get a bit dicey.
- Prolonged and powerful “N” winds coming down the full length of the lake will create quite a ruckus on Lake Michigan with 10-15 ft. waves and a boost in south end lake levels–a development which may lead to lakeshore flooding and require advisories as we get closer to the system providing current forecast trends hold.