An atmospheric “WILD CARD” Tuesday afternoon and evening is the presence of a layer of warm air aloft—what’s known as a “cap.” The extent of severe storm development Friday afternoon and evening may be impacted. “Caps” have been known to thwart storm formation. But if storms later Tuesday can “break” the cap, the atmospheric is primed for additional vigorous t-storm development.
Here’s the jet stream into which thunderstorms will ascent late Tuesday. Storms can mix wind energy down to the surface as damaging wind gusts. These winds also rotate thunderstorms producing tornadic supercells
Series of forecast maps off the NWS GFS ensemble model
Tuesday/Tuesday night severe weather risk assessment from the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
SPC probabilities of the various forms severe weather may take in the 24-hour period ending 7 AM CDT Wednesday
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOURLY PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MAPS
Non thunderstorm high winds threaten in the wake of late Tuesday and Tuesday night’s potentially severe t-storms on Wednesday
This storm will produce its heavy snow farther west and north than Friday’s storm
Cool, damp start to the day thanks to “NE” winds off the lake — but northbound warm front brings warmest temps of the day Tuesday evening to all areas except far north lakeshore communities
FRIDAY’S SEVERE OUTBREAK — MORE THAN 100 TWISTERS AND COUNTING
Surveys continue and these numbers could still rise
- Most active severe weather day since April 2020—nearly 3 years ago
- Most tornadoes across the United States since 121 twisters dipped down on December 10, 2021
