The rain tallies are in from Monday’s storm system from across the Chicago metro area. The spread in totals with Monday storms was even evident between the big airports here in the city. MIDWAY recorded 2.81″ reports Frank Wachowski, veteran National Weather Service observer responsible for the measurements there. On the city’s Northwest Side at O’Hare, the city’s official weather observation site, the Monday tally was 1.00″. Oak Park reported nearly 4″ of rain while DeMotte, Lowell and Wheatfield, Indiana had rains measured in hundredths of an inch—typical of the wide spread in warm season rains which are so common.
A period of showers and possible t-storms next reaches the area Thursday morning—but should sweep across the area expeditiously. Drier air and a beautiful Thursday afternoon and Friday follow.
Temps warm nicely Wednesday with the generous sunshine predicted to return to the 80s after morning lows Wednesday in the mid 50s inland and 60 here in the city.
The majority of models continue to build an impressive DOME OF HOT AIR over the Midwest later this weekend into next week which translates to a run of late-season heat.
Several model runs Tuesday morning generated forecast scenarios suggesting a Canadian high pressure could come on the scene by early next week–a scenario which would delay if not derail the warm-up/heat later Sunday and early next week. This NEW line of reasoning on a few of the scores of model forecasts examined in making predictions is at odds with THE PREPONDERANCE of OTHER model solutions which CONTINUE build a FORMIDABLE HOT DOME in the Sunday into Wednesday time frame—including what are known as ENSEMBLE VERSIONS of the very models which have latched onto cooling.
Ensemble forecasts have become AN INVALUABLE TOOL FOR WEATHER FORECASTERS—and they’re available to forecasters because of the phenomenal speed at which today’s supercomputers run. THE MIND-BOGGLING computational speed of today’s supercomputers means we can run MANY versions of the each model feeding slightly different interpretations of the millions of observations which describe the initial state of the atmosphere into these machines. When that’s done, a variety of forecast solutions emerge and it becomes easier to dismiss the forecast solutions which appear to be going off the rails.
The models suggesting a Canadian high pressure will disrupt the expansion of hot air into the area appear NOT to parallel the consensus forecast scenarios. Thus, we’re—AT LEAST FOR NOW—laying aside the cooler scenarios as likely OUTLIERS. Of course, we’ll keep an eye on future model forecast trends—but we’re taking a “MAJORITY RULES” approach and our forecast is buying into a spell of hot and, from all indications, humid air which appears to be on the way Sunday and may dominate into Wednesday next week.
The hottest official summer temps here in Chicago have only reached 93 thus far. If the warmest of the model scenarios prove accurate, the late summer hot spell which appears to be taking has the potential of producing higher readings. Stay tuned!
HEAT WAVE IS BREAKING RECORDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST–TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE RUNNING MORE THAN 20-DEG ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE IN COMING DAYS– WILDFIRES ARE BURNING IN THE REGION
It’s part of a dome of heat expected to build eastward into the Midwest this weekend and heading into next week.
As Axios environmental reporter Andrew Freedman reports, the heat is impacting a region of the country in which air conditioning is not as widely distributed as some other sections of the country. He quotes the National Weather Service there in saying, “These temperatures combined with the duration of heat, expected to continue through this week, will increasingly pose a heightened health risk, especially for those without adequate air conditioning.”
ACCESS ANDREW FREEDMAN’S FULL AXIOS ARTICLE HERE: LINK
ALSO: Here’s a National Weather Service animated smoke forecast off the agency’s high resolution HRRR model: LINK