It’s arrived!! Welcome to August 2022!

What’s ahead in the new month?

The bottom line from projections: A warmer and drier than normal August 2022 is the consensus forecast

The 30-day outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) suggest indicators and modeling suggest odds favor above normal temps and below normal overall precip–though with t-storms and convective shower so often involved in producing much of the month’s precipitation, precip tallies can vary widely across the region.

Raw Computer model projections from key longer range models from the National Weather Service, from the European Centre and from Environment Canada echo this line of reasoning and each suggest a dry (overall) and warmer than normal August is ahead.

How much daylight will we lose in August?

August is also a month in which the hours of daylight undergo a slow seasonal decline. We will lose 72 minutes of potential daily sun from Aug 1 through 31.

August 1st daylight will come in 2.09 minutes shorter than the day before while the 24 hour sun loss August 31 increases by just 3/10’s of a minute, shortening by 2.41 minutes.

Still plenty of warm weather

Temps begin responding to the shortening days by losing some ground as well with normal daily temp extremes going from 84/67 August 1st to 80/63 by the 31st. It’s hardly a crash! The pace of sunlight loss is very slow in the coming month.

Seasonal temp shifts occur very slowly and hot weather hardly abandons its turf here in the Chicago area during the month of August. Lovely warm weather has months yet to run here.

In 19 of August’s 31 days last year, Chicago recorded temps of 80-deg or warmer–that more than 60% of them. There were 5 days of 90s last August. It’s likely air conditioners will hum 31 days ahead. August 2021 ended up with a 3.3-deg surplus–it was significantly above normal.

A few notes on July

July 2022 temps end in a “statistical wash”–finishing just 0.1-deg below normal– while summer 2022 (the period which began June 1) is running 0.8-deg above normal and the 2022 warm season continues running ahead of normal with 90-deg and hotter days.

July was wet at O’Hare and many other areas in and around Chicago finishing with a 4.50″ tally—0.79″ above normal.

The wettest areas were across northern sections of the Chicago metro area and in the city itself. The driest areas were in locations farther east and south. Midway Airport posted nearly twice its “normal” July rain (185%)–a tally nearly 3 and 1/2″ above normal. At the same time, Valparaiso IN’s July rain was a statistical wash–coming in just 0.02″ above normal. And the National Weather Service-Chicago Forecast Office at Romeoville ended up with the DRIEST July tally which came up 0.14″ short and finished just 97% normal–not a huge departure from normal, but modestly below normal nonetheless.

As some have noted in comments on my Facebook site from the Champaign area east into Central Indiana–those downstate areas have been  subjected to very dry weather in July.

That region of downstate Illinois and Indiana sits between two are of significantly above normal precip areas–one covering much of downstate Illinois and section of downstate Indiana and a region of above normal rainfall across a swath of northern Illinois and northern Indiana— is clear from the “% of normal precip maps” I’m posting for July produced by NOAA’s High Plains Regional Climate Center.