Hurricane Lee may parallel the New England coast staying off shore, then could make landfall in Canada’s Maritime Provinces next work week
- Here’s a spectacular Friday morning GOES EAST weather satellite view of a remarkable and fearsome storm. HURRICANE LEE with eye-popping CAT5 165-mph sustained winds which may grow to 180 mph in the hours to come. HERE’S A TRUE COLOR GOES EAST WEATHER SATELLITE TIME LAPSE OF HURRICANE LEE.
- Lee’s top winds and its central barometric pressure will undergo oscillations due to what’s known as “eye-wall replacement cycles.” But, we have a storm among the Top Tier of Atlantic hurricanes in terms of its extraordinary intensity. And its fierce winds are generating ocean swells 12 feet and higher which the National Hurricane Center reports are propagating 240 miles to the northeast, 150 miles to the southeast, 90 miles to the southwest and 210 miles to the northwest. The full complement of swells generated by this storm expand even farther, and the storm is predicted to undergo expansion in the days to come which will be sending a punishing surf and set of life-threatening rip currents up and down our country’s Eastern Seaboard.
- It’s a system not an immediate threat to land IN TERMS OF A LANDFALL. However, the storm itself appears it may parallel the New England coast (staying offshore) then could conceivably landfall in Canada’s Maritime Provinces next work week if SOME VERY PRELIMINARY computer model guidance comes anywhere close to verifying. BUT, it goes without saying, and TROPICAL FORECASTERS WILL ALWAYS CAUTION, that there’s a growth of uncertainty in a hurricane’s forecast track and intensity details at long lead times.
- Hurricane Lee is predicted to possibly attain sustained winds of 180 mph Friday morning by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)—that’s a CAT 5 hurricane on steroids. It’s worth noting the National Hurricane Center’s track and intensity forecasts in the 2023 season to date have been stunningly accurate.
- The collective pool of scientific expertise on this stunning hurricane available to us is so incredibly impressive in this information age. Many posts today have offered us a perspective on Hurricane Lee’s uniqueness.
- Here are some Friday observations on Hurricane Lee from among the meteorological profession’s best and brightest hurricane experts and researchers:
- Dr. Phil Klotzbach (https://twitter.com/philklotzbach) reports: “Hurricane Lee is forecast to reach a max intensity of 180 mph. Only seven Atlantic hurricanes in satellite era (since 1966) have had max winds >= 180 mph: Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Mitch (1998), Rita (2005), Wilma (2005), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019).”
- Brian McNoldy (https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy) of the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science notes:
- “Category 5 hurricanes are rare… these are tropical cyclones with 157mph+ sustained winds in the eyewall. Meteorological perfection. What percentage of Atlantic named storms is known to have reached Cat 5 intensity?
- 1923-2023: 3.8%
- 1973-2023: 3.5%
- 1993-2023: 3.6% 2013-2023: 4.5%”
- And hurricane expert Michael Lowry, National Hurricane Center and Weather Channel alum and current Miami broadcast meteorologists (https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry) posts: “Hurricane Lee is in elite company tonight. Fewer than 1% of all tropical cyclone “fixes” ever attain Category 5 strength. Lee is the farthest southeast we’ve ever observed a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since records began 172 years ago. Lorenzo (2019) the farthest east.”
HURRICANE LEE’s HURRICANE HUNTERS
- The U.S. Air Force Reserve’s 53rd WEATHER RECON SQUADRON, the storied “HURRICANE HUNTERS” whose flights into hurricane provides critical data employed by tropical forecasters to understand the structure and strength of these storms, has been conducting recon flights into Hurricane Lee and posts these shots from inside the eye of the storm overnight.
- Follow the U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters here: https://twitter.com/53rdWRS