On Thursday, the CPC officially released its outlook for the 2022-23 Winter season. Based on many factors including an ongoing La Niña in the equatorial Pacific, and a vast area of abnormally warm water in the north Pacific, the CPC is forecasting below normal temps from the Pacific NW, across the northern Plains, to the western Great Lakes. Above normal temps are expected across the southern U.S from California to the Carolinas and extending along the East Coast to southern New England. Implications for the Chicago area:The Chicago area lies just outside the region of below normal temps, within a belt where readings are forecast to average near normal. The position and orientation of expected below and above normal belts lends credence to a forecast of above normal precipitation across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The mean jet stream position would lie in the transition zone (belt of near normal temps) between abnormal cold and abnormal warmth. This further suggests a mean storm track that would favor an above normal snowfall season.
WINTER 2022-23 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
For Chicago—near to slightly below normal
WINTER 2022-23 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
For Chicago—wetter (and likely snowier) than normal:
Normal precip total: 5.77”
Normal snowfall (Dec.-Feb.): 29.6”