FROM BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY TO 2023’s FIRST 60+ DEG TEMP FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THIS WEEK IS TO DISPLAY THE METEOROLOGICAL WARES OF TWO SEASONS
Chicagoans have yet to see a 60-degrees or warmer temp this year. That’s to change later this week—but not before a cold front sends brief snow showers through parts of the area in the 9 a.m. to noon time frame Wednesday.
We’re overdue for some warmth. Chicago had recorded six days above 60-degrees; three of them in the 70s as March was winding down a year ago. But to date–with just two days remaining in March—it appears the final day of the month on Friday will break the chilly spell.
We’re late for some warm air. Since 1942, the year Midway Airport became the city’s official observation site (81 years ago), the average first date for a 60-degree temp has been on or about Feb 27; on or about March 26th for our first 70-degree high and on or about April 21st for the first 80. It appears temps are to surge well into the 60s Friday—but that A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT and widespread showers and thunderstorms may close March, which came in like a lamb with sunshine and mid 50-deg temps, out like a lion.
Storm slamming into California Tuesday is Midwest-bound later this week.
The latest PINEAPPLE EXPRESS/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM SYSTEM to sweep into California—the 13th of the year—has the Midwest in its sights and is to drive to the week’s noteworthy temp gyrations–including the Friday severe weather potential.
(AT LEAST CUBS FANS WILL SQUEEZE IN A DRY, MILD HOME OPENER ON THURSDAY ahead of the storm’s arrival.) Less optimal may be Friday’s weather with strong SSW winds gusting 30 to 40 mph—a flow expected to propel Friday temps to the mid to upper 60s.
Its satellite presentation is impressive in this Tuesday afternoon GOES-18 image. Image courtesy of CIRA/RAMBB:
The storm as it appears on this NWS surface analysis:
Slide Show:
West Coast Precipitation and the FORECAST ENSEMBLE MAPS showing precipitation moving toward the Midwest. CLICK SLIDESHOW BELOW:
Satellite derived precipitation with the latest West Coast Storm in the CIMSS Univ of Wisconsin-Madison Real Earth image 
Color enhancement emphasizes the colder, taller clouds within the 13th ATMOSPHERIC RIVER/”PINEAPPLE EXPRESS” storm to hit the West Coast since Dec 22. Image courtesy of NOAA 
Tuesday afternoon observed wind gusts 
Environment Canada 250 mb (approx 34,000 ft.) UPPER AIR ANALYSIS from 7am CDT Tuesday 
7 P.M. CDT THURSDAY MARCH 30, 2023 NWS GFS ensemble model forecast map: 
1 A.M. CDT FRIDAY 
7 A.M. CDT FRIDAY MARCH 31 
1 P.M. FRIDAY CDT March 31 
7 P.M. CDT Friday 
1 A.M. CDT. SATURDAY 
EARLY ESTIMATE of potential Upper Midwest/Plains snowfall with the late week system from a NWS model blend 
ESTIMATED WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIP with the late week storm system 
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND GUSTS with the late week storm. Winds in Chicago Friday and Saturday will be strong–gusting to 36 mph Friday and potentially above 50 mph Saturday.
SEVERE WEATHER SET-UP? Predicted Upper Air at 7 p.m. CDT Friday…
Moisture transport and movement into the storm as predicted 4pm CDT FRIDAY MARCH 31, 2023:
5,000 ft. level predicted wind 4pm Friday indicating a powerful flow of warm, unstable air into the storm:
PRECIPITABLE WATER forecast showing the storm’s moisture distribution 7pm CDT Friday:
FRIDAY/FRI. NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL PER the Storm Prediction Center:
FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY–2023’s warmest in Chicago to date and the first high temp to surge above 60-degrees:
See the eastward movement of precipitation as it heads or way (Click slideshow):
