Mesoscale Discussion 0680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020 Areas affected...eastern Iowa into much of northern and central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231629Z - 231830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Bands of convection continue to increase in coverage near the Quad Cities and also farther west between Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. As storms become surface-based, an increasing tornado and damaging-wind threat will evolve. DISCUSSION...Lift with and advancing mid-level low and insolation/surface heating aiding in a gradual expansion in convective coverage this morning - particularly in a couple of bands across western portions of the discussion area. A few additional updrafts were also noted across west-central Illinois near Quincy. These trends should continue advancing mid/upper low migrates eastward in tandem with a destabilizing boundary layer. A surface low centered near Des Moines will aid in keeping surface winds backed through the remainder of the morning - especially in northern Illinois. Despite modest low-level flow (generally between 15-30 knots areawide) and MUCAPE only reaching 1000-1500 J/kg during the day, backed surface winds and veering kinematic profiles with height suggest potential for cells in this regime to rotate. As cells continue to migrate northeastward through the afternoon, they will gradually become more surface-based and pose more of a threat for tornadoes and a few damaging wind gusts. Some hail may also occur near the strongest updrafts.