Mesoscale Discussion 1680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Areas affected...Eastern WI...Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062347Z - 070145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Robust convection may develop across eastern WI into lower MI over the next few hours. Hail is the primary risk with this activity. Some consideration for a severe thunderstorm watch is necessary. DISCUSSION...Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a short-wave trough over the upper Great Lakes moving east-southeast toward lower MI. Extensive, layered cloudiness is noted ahead of this feature along with relatively stable boundary-layer conditions due to weak recovery in the wake of the early-day MCS that spread across northern IL. Over the last few hours it appears some recovery is occurring aloft within veered flow ahead of the front across IA into central WI. Earlier CAMs suggested strong convection would be under way by now across eastern WI. This delay may be due in part to the early-day MCS and retarded destabilization. Even so, a strong 500mb speed max is translating across south-central WI at this time and high-level diffluence should prove encouraging for deep convection. Over the last half hour, or so, a new shower has developed west of Fond du Lac WI and this may be the start of a more expansive cluster of storms that would spread across Lake MI into lower MI later this evening. Forecast soundings suggest convection will be rooted at, or near, 850mb and thus hail would be the primary risk. Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted in the next hour or so downstream.