The Storm Prediction Center expects that a tornado watch will be issued by mid-afternoon for portions of southern Wisconsin as well as north and central Illinois (see the discussion below).

Scalloped area is being considered for tornado watch issuance.
Mesoscale Discussion 0592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...portions of
   western...central and northwestern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301732Z - 301930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely by 19Z as storms form and
   intensify through the afternoon.

   TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...Destabilization is underway across the the Upper
   Midwest as dewpoints have increased into the low 60s and
   temperatures have warmed to near 70 amid broken clouds. The surface
   pattern is complicated across the warm sector this afternoon. A
   stationary front which extended from the occluded front across
   Illinois this morning has started to lift north as a warm front. The
   primary cold front extends from central Iowa across northwest
   Missouri and eastern Kansas while the initial cold front has started
   to wash out from southeast Iowa across central Missouri. The best
   low-level moisture remains east of this weakening front and
   therefore, the primary severe weather threat should remain east of
   this feature. MLCIN has started to erode across eastern Iowa and
   northwest Illinois. A bit more moisture advection and/or heating
   should be sufficient for storm development in the next 1 to 2 hours.
   Mini supercells will be possible near the surface low where wind
   profiles will also be favorable for low-level mesocyclone
   organization and potential for a tornado or two. 

   More robust storm development is expected across central Illinois
   where greater destabilization is anticipated with sufficient backed
   surface flow to support a tornado threat in addition to the threat
   for large hail and damaging winds. 17Z surface analysis shows
   temperatures 2 to 3 degrees above guidance indicating storm
   development could occur slightly earlier than 12Z guidance