One more cool day then mild weather returns

Weather Blog

It was a chilly Thursday morning across the Chicago area and it’s to stay cool through Friday, but 60s are on the way Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Aa chill hits again later next week and the area’s first snowflakes may not be far behind the following weekend.

Cold Mornings in Chicago

O’Hare recorded a second 29-degree low temp in a row Thursday morning–a reading below the 39-deg normal for November 4. And afternoon highs will fail to break out of the 40s for a fourth consecutive days. Highs like Thursday’s predicted 47-degree equal the “normal” high here roughly two weeks later–on November 18 and 19.

Having said that, the month of November is off to a chilly start averaging nearly 11-degrees cooler than a year ago when we were headed into a 7-day stretch of 70+ degree high temps (from November 4-10).

Warmer air returns

But if you’re ready for some milder air, we see it on the horizon. By later this coming weekend, temps are to break above 60-degrees. And the above normal temps are likely to last through mid-next week.

And don’t forget to set your clocks back!

Full forecast details at the WGN Weather Center

Then a major drop

It’s after that, temps here are likely to hit the skids. And we’re seeing the first signs the Chicago area could be in for its first snowflakes late next week–perhaps over the weekend which follows next week. That’s by no means a 100% certainty. And our models arrive at the potential for some snowflakes differently, in fact the latest European model is on the fence on the whole proposition of any snowflakes here. But the National Weather Service GFS model is sweeping some snowflakes in as perhaps a mix. 

Again, this is not this weekend but the next.

Veteran Midway Airport observer and our resident climate guru Frank Wachowski has broken out the dates of our first snowflakes at Chicago O’Hare over the past 10 years and my analysis of Frank’s figures leads to an average date over that period on or about October 27. So we’re actually a bit late for snowflakes–no surprise given the overwhelming warmth of the climatological autumn season thus far. But the first snow flurries have waited over the past decade until as late as November 30 to occur. So there’s nothing magic about the Oct 27 date. What Frank’s stats do tell us is that we’re at the point of the year where it shouldn’t be surprising to, at some point relatively soon–like in the next several weeks—to see at least some flurries in the air here in Chicago

Last year, the first city flurries fell October 26, even though 70-deg temps followed by November 4 through November 10th. The year before, the first snow, 1.2 inches of it, fell October. But the latest first snows of the past 10 years occurred on November 20th in 2015 (4.2″ fell then) and November 30th when a “trace” of snow occurred in 2010.

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