Mild Easter and Passover weekend temperatures tempered by cool lakeshore breezes; summer-level temps follow next week

2023’s warmest temperatures to date — year’s first 80 possible Wednesday and Thursday

ALL’S QUIET WITH THE NEW PATTERN ON THE STORM FRONT: MILDEST WEEKEND OF 2023 AHEAD —TEN-DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST WEEKEND — BUT COOLED BY LAKE BREEZES INTO SHORELINE AREAS

Summer-level warmth builds into the Chicago area next week with the first back-to-back 80s in nearly 7 months since October – a growing possibility by Wednesday and Thursday plus temperatures in the 70s for highs all near week

Temps will ease higher over the coming Easter/Passover weekend across the Chicago area in advance of summer-level warmth much if not all of next work week. After inland highs in the 60s this weekend (markedly cooler on the Lake Michigan shoreline including area beaches) — temps are to hit 70-degrees Monday and are likely to surge to 80 and 83-degree levels (22 and 25-degrees above normal respectively) Wednesday and Thursday.
This weekend is to average 58-degrees—10 degrees warmer than last weekend, which has been the warmest weekend of 2023 thus far. (NOTE: Lake breezes off the 42-degree Lake Michigan waters will reduce shoreline and beach temps WELL BELOW INLAND TEMPS. Highs Saturday, for instance, will likely reach 63-degrees inland, but only 47 on the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline. On Sunday lakeside highs will be less dramatically cooler than Saturday, holding to the mid to upper 50s on area beaches).

The pattern is to remain storm-free through next week, with better organized “SW” winds overcoming lake cooling all but Friday

The dome of warm air building over the Midwest will have staying power thanks to a blocking pattern predicted to develop across the Lower 48 next week. And at a time of year when wind direction is critical because of the chilly lake waters which reside nearby in Lake Michigan, prospects for a well developed SW flow which should keep lake cooled air away from the Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin shorelines seem likely to assure cooling lake winds are to become a no-show until, perhaps Friday. Our in-house analysis of model temp predictions based on recent model biases suggest next week’s temps will be the year’s warmest and are not only likely to average 14 degrees warmer than this week —a very noticeable change — but are also to average 15-degrees above normal — an eye-catching temp anomaly.
What’s more, because the dome of warm air is to divert storm carrying jet stream winds well north and west of Chicago, we’re in a quiet rain-free pattern until an upper-air system due to generate rains on the Gulf coast lifts northward. This potentially brings showers and t-storms back into the area, but very likely NOT UNTIL some point next weekend.
The average first date of an 80-degree temp since 2000 here in Chicago has been on or about April 13th (next Thursday’s date) which suggests the potential for 80-degree warmth next week will line up well with the onset of such warmth the past two decades.

**FRIDAY’S GOES EAST WEATHER SATELLITE IMAGE shows the dry weather with 100% of the Chicago area’s possible sunshine Friday. This satellite image courtesy of CIRA/RAMBB**

**THIS IS A 5-DAY TEMP DEPARTURE FORECAST showing how much ABOVE NORMAL temps will be in the orange and red shaded**

**Forecast high temperatures for Sunday and Monday**

“SMELLY SEAWEED BLOOM HEADS TO FLORIDA”

The European Satellite Agency (ESA) is out with an eye-catching post

The post opens, “A large mass of Sargassum ‘seaweed’ circling around the Gulf of Mexico may soon wash up along the US west coast near Florida – depending on the right combination of currents and wind. The bloom, which may likely be the largest ever recorded, is so large that it’s visible from space.”
Scientists have been remotely tracking the massive sea weed mass by satellite for months. It measures 5,000 miles across and is estimated to weigh 10-million tons. Satellites have been able to track the so-called Sargassum sea weed plumes since 2011—but this year’s appears the largest monitored since then–and is may expand further.
Interestingly, the European Space Agency notes the seaweed was first written about by Columbus in 1492 and who feared his ships might become trapped in it.
For those unfamiliar with where the “Sargassum Sea” is—it’s essentially a vast expanse of the Atlantic—NOAA’s National Ocean Service writes: “The Sargasso Sea, located entirely within the Atlantic Ocean, is the only sea without a land boundary.”
For those unfamiliar with where the “Sargassum Sea” is—it’s essentially a vast expanse of the Atlantic—NOAA’s National Ocean Service writes: “The Sargasso Sea, located entirely within the Atlantic Ocean, is the only sea without a land boundary.”
“Sargassum provides a home to an amazing variety of marine species. Turtles use sargassum mats as nurseries where hatchlings have food and shelter. Sargassum also provides essential habitat for shrimp, crab, fish, and other marine species that have adapted specifically to this floating algae. The Sargasso Sea is a spawning site for threatened and endangered eels, as well as white marlin, porbeagle shark, and dolphinfish. Humpback whales annually migrate through the Sargasso Sea. Commercial fish, such as tuna, and birds also migrate through the Sargasso Sea and depend on it for food.”

This map shows an overview of the floating Sargassum as of 5 April and shows the daily mean Sargassum concentration over the last seven days (starting from 5 April 2023). Please note that the map indicates the location of the Sargassum, while its size has been exaggerated for clarity. The geostrophic surface currents dictate how the Sargassum travels towards Florida and beyond. Courtesy: European Space Agency

Illustration of sargassum and associated marine life, including fish, sea turtles, birds, and marine mammals. Sargassum is a brown algae that forms a unique and highly productive floating ecosystem on the surface of the open ocean. Courtesy: NOAA

LAKE LEVELS—LOWER THAN LAST YEAR

But, still above long-term average water temps:

LAST SEPTEMBER’S HURRICANE IAN—THIRD MOST EXPENSIVE HURRICANE TO HIT THE LOWER 48

NOAA post-storm report indicates Hurricane Ian—which smashed into Florida this past September—hit top-tier “CAT 5” status before landfalling in southwest Florida as a 150-mph CAT 4 storm at peak strength just before landfall, Ian’s winds topped out at 161 mph. Ian ranks as Florida’s most expensive hurricane and third most expensive hurricane to hit the Lower 48

The storm made landfall in southwest Florida with peak sustained CAT 4-level winds of 150 mph and a devastating storm surge of 10 to 15 feet at Fort Myers—13 feet at Sanibel Island. It unleashed devastating flooding as a result of widespread 20″ Florida rainfalls, but with peak totals as high as 27.”

Though a CAT 4 at landfall, Hurricane Ian had strengthened briefly before reaching the Sunshine State, producing top wind gusts of 161 mph just after passing the Dry Tortugas Islands north of Cuba—thus placing Ian among historic hurricanes including Camille, Hugo, Andrew, Katrina, Wilma and Michael. The damage produced by the storm was staggering—estimated at $112-billion—making it Florida’s most expensive recorded hurricane and the third most expensive hurricane to landfall on the Lower 48. The storm killed 66 in Florid—but the Associated Press reports, “The U.S. total of 156 fatalities includes indirect deaths such as heart attacks, electrocution from power lines, inability to reach medical help and vehicle accidents. Of those, 84 were in Florida. Victims ranged in age from 6 to 101 years old, but the median age of storm-related deaths was 72, NOAA found.”

SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE SNAPSHOT WITH PREDICTED SURFACE WINDS

Lake breezes to continue through the Easter/Passover weekend creating a noticeable temperature difference between inland areas and shoreline locations