June 1 marks the official start of the 2022 hurricane season. What are the forecasters’ predictions for this year? How well did they do last year?
—Frank VanderPloeg Kenilworth
The just released 2022 Atlantic Basin forecast calls for a very active, above- normal season. If the forecast verifies it would be the 7th consecutive above-normal season in the Atlantic Basin. Forecasters are predicting, with a 65 percent confidence level, 14-21 named storms (14 is average), 6-10 hurricanes (7 is average) and 3-6 major hurricanes (Category 3-5 with winds of 111 mph+- 3 is average). Last year’s forecast of an above average season verified extremely well as the 2021 season finished with 21 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Warmer than normal sea water and an ongoing La Niña are the rationale behind the above-normal forecast.