Major pattern change promises an end to the chilly, showery weather of recent days with significant warming in sight late this week— most pronounced next week

  • I was in Springfield this past weekend for this year’s Lincoln Academy 59th convocation ceremony. It was held in the Illinois House of Representatives chamber in the State Capitol. What an honor—and how amazing to meet so many of our fellow Illinoisans including the Governor and First Lady and members of the Academy from across the state. There is so much to say about all of this—but I just wanted to share some photos with you.
  • The entire proceeding was streamed and recorded by the Lincoln Academy, including our acceptance comments:


Precipitation shortfall plus 50 MPH wind gusts and pre-growing season lack of vegetation contributed to deadly downstate dust storm on I-55


  • In terms of temperature, it was effectively as if we moved back in time to March 20th when the “normal” high was 50—only 27 May 1s have been as chilly or chillier since records began here in 1871, illustrating how clouds can seriously limit daytime warming. But, here’s the good news: warming due later this week and real warmth headed this way next week.
  • You have to go back to May 1, 2016 to find a May which has opened as chilly as today. The coldest daytime high on the opening days of There have been four May 1s which as chilly as Monday’s 50-degree high SINCE 2000.
  • The coldest May 1st here were 38 degrees in 1909 and 39 degrees in 1875. Those were the early days of the official Chicago observations, when the readings were taken closer to Lake Michigan and were therefore influenced by the chilly May water temps.
  • Monday’s May 1st high of 50 degrees here equals the normal high temp in Chicago March 20th. So effectively, it felt like what we typically see about a month and a half earlier. It marked the 10th consecutive day of below normal temps and another day with clouds and showers. There was NO sunshine observed today.
  • BELOW NORMAL TEMPS will continue in coming days. Clouds are to dominate another day (Tuesday) which really limits the atmosphere’s ability to warm. But there’s MUCH better news ahead on the temp front.
  • Temps will creep a bit higher tomorrow and Wednesday but will reach the 60s Thursday and Friday afternoon. Winds will be coming off Lake Michigan at that time and through the coming weekend. So, the fact it’s COOLER-NEAR-THE-LAKE SEASON will be evident—even though inland temps will actually return to near normal levels.
  • Next weekend is to average 12-degrees warmer than this past weekend—AND BETTER NEWS IS IN STORE next week. While this week will finish 4 degrees below normal (even with the warming due later in the week), next we’ll see the average temp surge from this week’s 50-degrees to 65-degrees—a 15-degree weekly increase. THAT’S BIG! It will finally FEEL like spring with temps surging on a daily basis into the 70s.
WATCH HOW, MOVING FORWARD IN TIME, THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS GIVES WAY TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. These panels show PREDICTED TEMP DEPARTURES for Days 1 to 15. This forecast has been generated by the National Weather Service/s GFS ENSEMBLE model

Watch how the UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS, supporting major warming over the coming 2 weeks.


Heavy, late season snow wallops portions of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula