TEMPS REBOUND big time Thursday surging to within striking distance of 80-degrees—a near 20-degree temp increase by Thursday afternoon. But the return of clouds and showery spells Friday will reduce temps Friday and weekend lake breezes likely to put a lid on temps, holding inland readings to modestly BELOW NORMAL LEVELS

Potential for Near 90° Next Week?

What’s interesting about next week’s warming is the potential temps may not only reach the 80s—but that temps could actually near 90-degree in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

One way or another, next week as a whole appears on track to warm more than 10-degrees over this week’s temp which could indicate a week long average temp next surging 6° ABOVE NORMAL after a cool start Monday.

Next Week May Average 10° Warmer Than This Week

Our in house work indicates this week will come out a statistical wash–averaging within a fraction of degree of normal. BUT—with the projected pattern change, temps next week are predicted to average 10-degrees warmer than this week and 6-deg above normal.

That’s a BIG CHANGE which will be noticeable. While the week may begin with lake breezes and modestly below normal temps Monday, indications are inland high temps may reach or exceed 80-deg each day from Tuesday forward through the Memorial Day weekend which follows if current forecast trends hold.

Of course, the wild card, as always with early season warm spells, is the extent of any lake cooling. There are indications lake breezes will cool the lakeshore Monday, Tuesday and perhaps even Wednesday. But there are also hints from current guidance the pressure gradient may tighter a bit later in the week leading to a better established southerly flow which might well minimize if not overcome lake cooling. This will be interest to follow as we move closer to next week’s warming. I’ll keep you updated on forecast trends.

IT’S DRY—AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY IN PARTS OF THE AREA—THERE’S NO SIGN OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

PRECIPITATION remains in short supply continuing a dry trend which has dominated the past two months. While showers are on the way Friday and modeling is suggest 0.3 to 0.6″ rainfall tallies are possible, other than scattered showers or t-storms later next week into the week which follows, widespread soaking rains—if they’re out there for us—are NOT YET SHOWING UP on model projections.

This 10 day precipitation and precip trend forecast shows BELOW NORMAL PRECIP is to continue overall during that period over a wide swath of the Midwest–including the Chicago area:

The dry weather this time of year is concerning because we’re fast moving to warm season precip delivery which tends to be more scattered. This makes it harder to make up precip deficits over the area as a whole.

Since April, Chicago has only received 2.59″ which is 3.86″ BELOW NORMAL. May alone has received a paltry 15% of the month’s normal precip to date.

SNOW AND ICE ARE MELTING FAST AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND THE BREAK-UP OF ICE ON ALASKA RIVERS IS CAUSING FLOODING AND HOME DAMAGE

Chunks of ice as big as 12 feet have been reported on Interior Alaska’s Yukon River with the spring “break up”. Ice dams have formed and flooding over the past week into this week has damaged homes.

The Associated Press reports “(Alaska) Gov. Mike Dunleavy issued a disaster declaration for the Yukon River communities of Circle and Eagle, as well as Crooked Creek on the Kuskokwim and Glennallen on the Copper River.”

READ MORE ABOUT THE ALASKA FLOODING HERE: https://apnews.com/…/alaska-flooding-river-ice-jams…

Daylight in Northern North America

WHAT A DIFFERENCE THERE IS BETWEEN THE DAYLIGHT WE RECEIVE IN CHICAGO IN SPRING AND THE DAYLIGHT WHICH OCCURS IN NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA!

In a very real sense, seasonal air temp increases in spring and going into summer across the planet are astronomically driven. That’s certainly true and easily demonstrable in North America. The period of daylight we receive is vastly different between Chicago and the northern reaches of North America.

Temps warm quickly across the arctic regions of North America this time of year. Readings hit 70° in Fairbanks, Alaska yesterday for the first time this year and since August 25th last year. That’s the warmest temp there in nearly 9 months.

Check out the map of high temps recorded across Alaska yesterday and you’ll see why there are flood issues in parts of the state. Snow and river ice is melting and this produces ice jams which can promote river flooding.

The period of daylight each day at high latitudes lengthens FAR FASTER in northern North America than in Chicago.

The period of daylight each day is much longer the farther north you go in North America this time of year.

As an example, Chicago will see 14 hour and 37 minutes of daylight today (Wednesday, May 17)—but residents of Anchorage, Alaska will receive 3 hours more daylight than Chicago (17 hours and 38 minutes) and farther north, in Fairbanks—in the center of Alaska—residents will see 4+ hours more daylight than we see in Chicago (18 hours and 55 minutes to be precise). That impacts temps.

Also, the rate at which daylight increases far more rapidly in northern North America in spring than in Chicago. While we here in Chicago will see nearly two minutes more daylight than yesterday, daylight today will increase by 3.5 times the pace of Chicago in Fairbanks, Alaska–with more than 7 minutes more daylight than we will see today in Chicago.

The rapidly increasing daylight which occurs the farther north one goes in North America really adds up.

BY JUNE 21st this year—the northern hemisphere’s LONGEST DAY OF THE YEAR—Chicago will see 14 hours and 44 minutes of daylight. But residents of Fairbanks, Alaska will see 7 HOURS AND 8 MINUTES MORE DAYLIGHT THAN WE SEE HERE IN CHICAGO–with a total of 21 hours and 49 minutes of daylight there.

The smoke off scores of Canadian wildfires—in fact, 89 fires, a quarter burning out of control and some more than 2,300 miles from Chicago—is responsible for the orange-colored hue to skies above Chicago Wednesday. The smoke first arrived in skies over Chicago Tuesday afternoon.

This is video I’ve shot Wednesday morning from the city’s Edgewater neighborhood at the far north end of DeSable Lake Shore Drive looking at the skies over wind-whipped Lake Michigan and the adjacent shoreline.

The vast smoke plume produced by the fires which have ignited in the midst of drought and record early season warmth in western Canada, is visible on weather satellite imagery and has traveled thousands of miles into the Midwest east to New England and the mud-Atlantic and beyond. Here’s a post on the situation by NASA: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/…/smoke-fills-north…

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Here’s the latest GOES weather satellite imagery showing the huge smoke plume off Canadian wildfires spreading the Midwest and beyond. An animated satellite presentation is available here: https://col.st/djals

AND THE LATEST animated National Weather Service RAP model North American smoke plume forecast is available here:

A U.S./southern Canada focused animated RAP MODEL SMOKE FORECAST is shown here: