Lake effect precip occurs when you have the full fetch winds but ALSO when cool air sweeps over COMPARATIVELY WARM lake waters— precisely the set up overnight Thursday. Water temps average out to 73° while temps later tonight will have dropped to 46 degrees just a mile above. That steep vertical drop in temps—what meteorologists refer to as a steep adiabatic lapse rate—encourages lake warmed air to become buoyant and to rise, cooling as it does. This sets the stage for cloud—and ultimately scattered shower development. Later in the season, when temps grow cold, this is the type of meteorological set-up which leads to lake effect snow. THANKFULLY, IT’S NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN. We’ll settle for a bit of rain instead.
HURRICANE “LEE” IS HEADED FOR “ATMOSPHERIC BEHEMOTH” STATUS– CAT 5 160 MPH WINDS BY FRIDAY EVENING—IT’S UNDERGOING THE PREDICTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC—ITS GOES EAST WEATHER SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS STRIKING!
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE—THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE JOVA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF WESTERN MEXICO WITH ITS 155 MPH WINDS
The official NHC forecast puts Hurricane Lee’s maximum sustained winds at 160 mph by Friday evening–but quite remarkably, the SHIPS model has put winds as high as 190-195 mph–and the new HAFS-B tropical cyclone model run by the National Weather Service isn’t far behind. That’s CAT 5+ if those numbers verify.
The surf this system, which is to grow HUGE staying well away from land yet pounding coastal areas with its huge swells and rip currents, will be formidable and is to ultimately extend up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Longer range model runs even have the system flirting with New England and slamming the Maritime Provinces of eastern Canada. Of course, at such a range in time, much can happen. The storm is also going to ride from the record warm waters it will be over in the next 2 days into a region of water cooled through upwelling produced by the winds of of Idalia. That’s why you see wind speed projections out of NHC coming down from 160 to 140 mph—still incredibly powerful if those numbers verify.
Bottom line—this is a storm to monitor. And as mentioned in an earlier post, hurricanes can have quite an impact on the larger atmosphere in which they operate acting to slow the progression of weather systems. This could extend the visit of cool air here in the Midwest.
Check out the array of graphics I’m posting below.
ALSO–HERE’S A LINK TO THE LATEST ADVISORY OUT OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/MIATCPAT3+shtml/071458.shtml?
HERE’S THE LATEST NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/MIATCDAT3+shtml/071459.shtml?
