Update on the status of severe thunderstorm watch #430:


Disorganized, non-severe storms have shown signs of developing in a zone of warm air transport aloft from NW Illinois into SE Wisconsin. Some of these cells may develop, producing an isolated severe hail threat. Heavy downpours are likely with larger storms.

Here is the discussion from the SPC:

Areas affected...Northern IL...Northern IN...Southern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

   Valid 120406Z - 120530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430

   SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development is possible overnight,
   but the magnitude and coverage of any severe risk remain quite

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms which briefly intensified earlier across
   northern IL and produced a near-severe gust west of Chicago have
   recently dissipated, while other generally disorganized convection
   continues across southwest lower MI in the wake of an earlier
   thunderstorm cluster. The greatest thunderstorm coverage across WW
   430 in the short term may continue to be across southwest MI, with
   the primary low-level jet expected to remain focused in this area.
   Further west, midlevel cumulus continues to be noted in IR imagery
   across northwest IL, and additional storm development remains
   possible into northern IL late tonight as a cold front moves into
   the region. 

   While buoyancy remains rather large across the region, any
   additional development later tonight will likely become increasingly
   elevated with time as MLCINH increases, and effective shear for
   elevated parcels will likely remain rather weak due to marginal (at
   best) midlevel flow. Thus, any severe risk may remain isolated at
   best, and it is possible that portions of WW 430 will be cancelled
   early if no substantial redevelopment occurs by 05Z or sooner.

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