FIRST HERE ARE THE LATEST WEDNESDAY WEATHER HEADLINES:
–Another beautiful day—-making for a terrific 2nd day of November—one filled with sun!! It’s also the 5th consecutive day of above normal temps in Chicago—with 8 more to run in the current mild spell.
–Two more 70+-deg highs lie ahead Thursday and Friday—temps nearly 20-deg above normal. And Saturday will see mid 60s. BUT– if we manage a Saturday 70, that would be four in a row in the current warm spell when today’s low 70s is included—something (four consecutive 70s in November) that’s happened only 5 times in the past 151 years. So, we’re in rare meteorological territory. These are late Sept level temps we’re enjoying—and in EARLY NOVEMBER!!
–Wednesday’s warmth is likely to approach or set records across sections of 9 states.
–BIG CHANGES underway out West with a wintry chill to bring snow and chilly rain sweeping in over coming days. The deep troughing the cold plunge is to produce in the country’s Western jet stream will set-up southwest winds on the cold air’s eastern flank. Those will cover the Midwest. And the southerly winds will be stacked vertically through the atmosphere—from ground level aloft tens of thousands of feet—a set-up that keeps a strong surge of mild air coming.
–Moisture from the Gulf will wend its way north into the Midwest in this pattern increasing clouds here Thursday afternoon and night and boosting rain chances Friday into Saturday.
–STRONG WINDS ARE TO LOCK IN OVER COMING DAYS with gusts topping 30 mph in Chicago Thursday and Friday. And modeling is indicating the potential for some EXCEEDINGLY STRONG 50 to 60 mph gusts which may sweep the area Saturday as an autumn storm lifts northeastward out Texas racing to northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan between Friday morning and midday Saturday.
–Even in the wake of that system, which introduces a period of easterly winds Monday into Tuesday, temps will remain above normal. And a second surge of much above normal air is to return temps to the mid 60s Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.
–Significant cooling hits late next week into the following week. Models developing Greenland blocking—a COLD SIGNAL for Chicago. While this weekend is to see 60s, the following weekend is only likely to have temps limited to the 40s.
–It’s worth remembering, November is Chicago’s fastest cooling month capable of quite a range of weather. When the other shoe drops, particularly with such anomalous warmth in coming days, the cool-down may well be fairly dramatic. BUT THAT ISN’T LIKELY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK OR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
–Another point to remember. My WGN meteorological colleague Mark Carroll combed the records and has found measurable snow has fallen in November in109 of the past 138 years for which we have snow records here in Chicago dating back tot eh 1884-85 season—that’s 79% of years. While we DEFINITELY don’t yet see THE system that might produce flurries or snow, if the predicted cool-down comes into being the weekend following this one, history alerts us that it would be prudent to follow the cool-down’s evolution in the weeks following next week to see if some snow appears on the horizon.
REMINDER: Central Standard Time returns this weekend. TURN CLOCKS BACK AN HOUR before turning in this Saturday night.
HERE’S MY LATEST WEDNESDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST:
TONIGHT: A few scattered clouds, not quite as cool. Low 52 in the city; mid 40s cooler inland locations.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, turning windy and warm by and during the afternoon. Gusts are likely to build to 30+ mph. High 73—a reading nearly 20-degress above normal.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over and milder. Steady south/southwest winds help boost temps. Low 61.
FRIDAY: Windy and unseasonably warm. Extensive cloudiness—several scattered showers possible, impacting 30 to 40% of the Chicago area. High 72.
FRIDAY NIGHT and SATURDAY: Showers and possible thunderstorms increase Friday night and Saturday morning—then thin out with mixed sun and powerful wind gusts Saturday afternoon. Low Friday night 51. High Saturday 66.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, windy and mild. High 65.
MONDAY: Partly sunny, cooler, especially along Lake Michigan with the onset of easterly winds. High 59—but low to mid 50s beaches and lakeshore.
TUESDAY: Clouds and mixed sun, breezy and milder, particularly away from the lake. High 66—but mid to upper 50s along Lake Michigan.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy, breezy and mild for the season. High 66.