ONE OF THE WARMEST NOVEMBER OPENS OF THE PAST 151 YEARS IN CHICAGO–INCLUDING 70+-DEG TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY—IS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A CLASSIC HIGH WIND SET-UP SATURDAY, ONE WHICH COULD UNLEASH A PERIOD OF 50+ MPH WINDS—WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORIES OF WARNINGS FOR HIGH WINDS SATURDAY
We’ll flirt with the Nov 3 record high temp Thursday afternoon. That record—75-degrees—was set 35 years ago. And the Chicago area won’t be the only near record or record high temp in the Midwest today. Records for the warmest temps are within reach across portions of 5 Midwest states.
As a sidebar–HEAT is an issue today in Florida, where recovery from Hurricane Ian continues–particularly across southwest coastal Florida. Heat indices surge well into the 90s amid thermometer readings well into the 80s.HIGH TEMPS NOV 1-3 APPEAR HEADED FOR A RANK OF 4th WARMEST SINCE 1871.
My colleague Mark Carroll has broken out the warmest Nov 1-3 highs on the books here in Chicago since 1871–and it looks as though the 3-day period will end up 4th warmest in all that time. NOT BAD for a month which has, on average, cooled fastest from start to finish of ANY MONTH of the year here.
Tonight’s nighttime low around 60 also seems poised to challenge the 59-deg record for warmest Nov 4th low on the books in Chicago.
ROARING WINDS COULD REACH THE “DAMAGE THRESHOLD” SATURDAY
A powerful autumn storm is to sweep north from Texas, passing west of Chicago, but setting the stage for POWERFUL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS Saturday–especially in the late morning and/or afternoon.
BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES. It would be wise secure objects which might go airborne in strong winds on Saturday.Modeling has roaring southwest winds stacked from ground level tens of thousands of feet into the atmosphere by Saturday afternoon. Such an environment is prime from allowing powerhouse jet stream levels winds to mix down to the surface producing a CLASSIC HIGH WIND SET-UP capable of generating some damage. For days, we’ve monitored model projections of wind gusts topping 50 mph–and the strongest forecasts suggest 60+ mph gusts could occur at some point Saturday.
A model generated WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE which simulates what we’re likely to see Saturday morning into afternoon on weather satellite imagery, places Chicago in a cloud-free notch of dry air which lends storm systems like the one predicted Saturday, their COMMA-SHAPED APPEARANCE. It’s not uncommon in this so-called DRY SLOT for especially strong winds to “mix down” to the surface. And gusts over 50 mph are widely viewed as reaching the threshold at which they are capable of producing some damage.
BIGGEST RAINS TO FALL TO CHICAGO’S WEST AND NORTH
CHECK OUT THE GRAPHICS–including SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST GRAPHICS for today and Friday in the developing storm’s frontside “warm sector”.