FIRST, THE MONDAY WEATHER HEADLINES

–We had a nice “warm-up” in Chicago Monday. Our 46-deg high was spot on with regard to Nov 21st normals—but 19-deg warmer than Saturday’s 27 and 12-deg warmer than Sunday’s 34.  What’s more, when wind chills are factored in, today (Monday) FELT 15-deg warmer than Sunday.

–We head into what we expected to be a MILDER THAN NORMAL Thanksgiving week. It’s to include a 48-deg high Tuesday, a 51-deg max Wed and a 53-deg high temp Thanksgiving day itself—readings 3, 6 and 9-deg above normal respectively.

–This week as a whole is to average 9-deg milder than last and come in close to 2-deg above normal.  Gone for now and for the foreseeable future are the frigid winds and resulting wind chills of late last week and the just completed weekend. Gone too are the lake effect snows which have been so consequential downwind of all the Great Lakes in the past week.

–We expect a wet weather system to take shape over the Gulf states and sweep into the Appalachians—but NOT to produce more than some limited coverage and light intensity rain showers or sprinkles on Thanksgiving day in Chicago. We’ll continue monitoring that system in the event it comes farther north and brings more substantial precipitation.  But the read now is THAT PRECIP would fall in liquid form—not as travel hampering snow here.

–A more substantial rain threat may material Saturday into Sat night—and east winds accompanying that system could make for a raw chill over the weekend, particularly lakeshore areas. But even then, temps are to average above normal.  In fact, the early read on this weekend’s temps is that they’ll come in AN IMPRESSIVE 16-DEG WARMER THAN LAST WEEKEND

–Looking longer range, into next week there are indications a more active period (in terms of precipitation) may take shape with the threat of a series of storm systems which could bring precip to Chicago. And a distinct cooling trend is indicated– with temps next week coming in NEAR NORMAL but 5-deg colder than this week’s average.

–There are early indications of a potentially colder pattern reaching Chicago in the opening week of December—which would mean it could impact the area the weekend which follows this coming weekend and the days immediately beyond. It’s early yet—nothing’s yet carved in stone—but jet stream winds are indicated as likely to blow into the Midwest from Canada—and that forecast carries with it a significantly colder appearance. 

HERE’S MY LATEST MONDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST  11/21/2022:

TONIGHT: Some scattered clouds late, chilly. Low 26—low 20s colder inland locations.

TUESDAY: A good deal of sunshine—just scattered clouds. Seasonably mild November temps and bit breezy from the southwest by afternoon. High 48. (Normal high is 45).
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly clear, chilly again. Low 29—low to mid 20s inland.

WEDNESDAY: A good deal of sunshine, a few degrees milder and ABOVE NORMAL for this time of year. High 51—a reading 6-deg above normal.

THURSDAY (Thanksgiving Day): Cloudier than not, mild. Chance of some afternoon sprinkles or a few spells of light rain. High 53.

FRIDAY: Clearing with mainly sunny skies by afternoon. High 48.

SATURDAY: Clouding over, turning a bit breezy off Lake Michigan. Prospect for rain increase. Seasonable temps. High 45—modestly cooler along Lake Michigan.

SUNDAY: Morning rain exits followed by partial clearing in the afternoon. Gusty NNW winds. High 46.

MONDAY: Clouding over again. Cooler. High 41.