FIRST, THE WEATHER HEADLINES

–Chicagoans enjoyed 100% of Tuesday’s possible sun which helped produced the city’s warmest temps in 11 days Tuesday with a high of 53 at O’Hare—a reading 8-deg above normal. Midway and the Lakefront each logged highs of 51-deg.  Only a week ago, the official Chicago O’Hare high was just 42-deg.

–Despite the recent chill, the month of November 2022—with just 8 days to run—is running 1.2 deg ABOVE NORMAL and 2.2-deg warmer than the opening 22 days of November a year ago.  The surplus this month is a testament to the “warmth” posted by November’s 11 consecutive ABOVE NORMAL OPENING DAYS.

–The mild pattern has legs. Each of the coming 9 days, running through Thursday next week, is to post daily temp surpluses—though winds off the Friday afternoon and Saturday may produce a raw chill in lakeshore areas, coming as they will off Lake Michigan.

–Wednesday may see a 56-deg high and THANKSGIVING DAY is set to be the mildest Thanksgiving in Chicago in a decade—with a predicted high of 53; warmer than any Thanksgiving here since 2012 when the day produced a 63-deg high. It was 48-deg on Thanksgiving day last year.

–The normal Thanksgiving Day high temp is just 53—so we’re in BONUS TERRITORY.

–58% of Chicago Thanksgivings have produced at least a trace of rain; 27% of them (40 of the past 150 years) have produced at least a trace of snow and only 5 of the past 150 years—just 3% of them—have produced an inch or more of snow. The most recent Thanksgiving to produce measurable snow in the city was 15 years ago (0.1″) in 2007 and the last Thanksgiving here to produce more than an inch of snow was the 3″ which fell 42 years ago in 1980.

–NO SNOW THIS YEAR—just clouds and some spotty afternoon and nighttime sprinkles or scattered light showers.

–Skies clear for a time Friday then cloud over again Saturday when a more substantial risk of RAIN sweeps into the area by later in the day and continues into Sunday morning before ending and turning windy.  An east/northeast wind with that rain system comes into the city off Lake Michigan and will add a chill to the air Saturday and Sat night.

–Another rain generating storm sweeps into the Midwest mid next week along with a surge of milder air and a new round of near 50-deg weather.

–A pattern shift appears to be taking place beyond that system which could re-introduce COLD ARCTIC AIR here in Chicago and the Midwest by the weekend after the one upcoming—cold air which may continue into the following week. It’s not yet indicated on the 8-to-14-day forecast—but you see it in the model 11-to-15-day temp departure forecasts, and I suspect you may see it indicated in future 8-to-14-day temp trend forecasts in coming days.

HERE’S MY LATEST TUESDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST (11/22/2022)

TONIGHT: Mainly clear and chilly. A quick drop in temps after sunset to a low near 30 in the city and mid 20s colder outlying areas.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, a bit breezy from the southwest by afternoon and even milder than today. High 56—a reading 11-deg above normal.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over and milder. Low 36.

THURSDAY (Thanksgiving Day): Cloudy and mild for the time of year. Sprinkles or some scattered light showers impacting 30 to 40% of the area in the afternoon and at night. High Thursday 53—nearly 10-deg above normal.

FRIDAY: Becoming sunny, mildest away from the lake. Easterly lake breezes develop cooling the shoreline in the afternoon. High 50—but 40s lakeshore.

SATURDAY: Opens with sunshine—but clouding over with a good chance of rain developing later in the day. Rain likely Saturday night. High Saturday 50 inland—but low to mid 40s along Lake Michigan.

SUNDAY: A cloudy, rainy open. Partial clearing follows in the afternoon, becoming windy and a little cooler. High 46.

MONDAY: Mixed sun—but more clouds as the day proceeds, seasonably mild. High 45.

TUESDAY: Clouds increase and thicken, breezy and milder. Rain likely at night. High 50.