Tropical forecasters CONTINUE TO CAUTION residents in hurricane prone areas of the country NOT TO LET THEIR GUARD DOWN or make a potentially faulty assumption things will remain quiet in the Atlantic basin in the weeks and months to come.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach’s observation that the 2001 season didn’t produce a hurricane until Sept 8th–then went on to produce 9 hurricanes, MORE THAN THE FULL SEASON AVERAGE–certainly underscores how quickly some hurricane seasons have come alive in years past. There’s no guarantee that will happen this year—but it sure illustrates the fact a MORE ACTIVE PATTERN can’t yet be dismissed.

Long time AON Insurance meteorologist Steve Bowen underscores how active past Septembers have been in La Nina years. We have a La Nina currently in progress and entering its third year right now out in the tropical Pacific—so Bowen’s analysis of September tropical cyclone production in La Nina years since 1965, which he posted this morning, is worth checking out.

This is the peak month of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

During La Nina years since 1965, the month of September accounts for…

  • 36% of Named Storm formations
  • 42% of Hurricane formations
  • 47% of Major Hurricane formations

ALSO OF INTEREST, is Bowen’s analysis of how this year’s overall quiet Atlantic hurricane season up to Hurricane Danielle’s formation Friday, compares with past quiet seasons.

It’s been 332 days since the last Atlantic hurricane–making it the third longest period without a hurricane in the satellite era (dating back to the late 1970s and early 1980s.

He’s put together a list of the lengthiest quiet periods in the Atlantic basin.

I’ve posted the National Hurricane Center’s 5-day tropical forecast.