FIRST–THE FRIDAY WEATHER HEADLINES

–A milder than normal FINAL WEEKEND OF OCTOBER, 2022 lies ahead. But while daytime highs will come in 6-degrees warmer than normal, daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will average close to 16-deg cooler than last weekend’s unseasonable near 80-deg highs.

–Light winds and and mainly clear skies are likely to allow patchy fog to form in normally cooler locations—mainly in areas away from Lake Michigan and outside Chicago.

–HIGH PRESSURE keeps the sun shining through much of Saturday—though high clouds will begin increasing Sat afternoon and evening ahead of a northbound weather system lifting from the southern Plains and western Gulf States. It reaches Chicago with widespread cloudiness modest rain chances Sunday—particularly in the afternoon and evening. Widespread or heavy rainfall isn’t expected—but as much as a third of the metro area could see several scattered showers.

–The weather system headed this way with lowering and thickening clouds Sat night and Sunday has been responsible for snows in recent days at the high elevations of Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, The system sent wind and some t-storms into western Texas—and is to spread rain into the southern Plains and western Gulf States tonight and Saturday.

–A good deal of cloudiness is likely to linger into Halloween Day (Monday) but little more than a few sprinkles are expected with it in Chicago—and those are likely to be limited primarily to the morning hours. Halloween this week—a holiday which has produced a wide range of weather over the years—looks fairly mild with mid 60s likely—but easterly breezes off Lake Michigan will hold lakeside and beach air temps to the 50s.

–PROJECTS OF A SIGNFICANT WARM UP riding southwest winds into the Midwest from the Gulf appears on track to sends temps within striking distance of 70-deg Wed, Thu and Friday. Even Tuesday could see temps ride well into the 60s—though a final day of lake breezes may restrain daytime highs a bit along Lake Michigan.

–Late season 70-deg temps have occurred beyond Nov. 1 in 42% of the past 151 years here in Chicago. And years like 2020 have loggest 7 post Nov 1 70s; 1953 and 1975 each logged six 70s and 1938, 1994 and 1999 managed five days with highs of 70 or higher, reports my WGN meteorological colleage Mark Carroll.

–Next week is predicted to average 58-deg—11-deg above normal and modeling suggest the following week will average 48-deg—more than 4-deg above normal—so a mild pattern is to dominate the coming two weeks which takes us into the opening 12 days of November 2022 (which begins next Tuesday).

–It’s extraordinary how dry it is across the country. I can’t remember MORE of the LOWER 48 being this dry. The latest DROUGHT MONITOR has more than 84% of the U.S. short of moisture and nearly 63% of the Lower 48 in a state of AT LEAST “MODERATE” DROUGHT. 36% of the continental U.S. is in a state of SEVERE, EXTREME or EXCEPTIONAL drought.

HERE’S MY LATEST FRIDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST

TONIGHT: Mainly clear, calm and cool. Patchy fog in normally cooler locations. Low 39—but with some low 30s coolest inland locations where frost is possible.

SATURDAY: Sunny with a quick temp rebound and modestly above normal afternoon temps when high clouds will begin to move in. High 65—but upper 50s on area beaches.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds lower and thicken, not as chilly.  Low 46.

SUNDAY: More cloudy than not, mild for late October. Several light scattered showers may impact up to 30% in the afternoon and/or evening. High 62—50s lakeshore and beaches.

MONDAY (Halloween Day): A good deal of cloudiness, similar temps. A few sprinkles possible in the morning. A bit of passing sun possible in the afternoon.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and mild. High 68—but low 60s beaches.

WEDNESDAY: More clouds—but with some mixed sun, breezy and warmer. High 70—a reading 15-deg above normal.

THURSDAY: Sun and mixed clouds, windy and unseasonably mild. Gusty SSW winds. High 71—15-deg above normal.

FRIDAY: Mild and breezy with sporadic showers and possible thunderstorms. High 70.