Colorado State hurricane researcher Dr. Phil Klotzbach (https://twitter.com/philklotzbach) indicates in a post last Thursday that CSU’s 2023 Atlantic season update (https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf) has increased its predicted number of 2023 hurricanes and tropical storms. In so doing, the Colorado State outlook joins their NOAA tropical forecasting colleagues in predicting a “NORMAL” number of hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the months ahead (https://www.noaa.gov/…/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season…). In so doing, the COLORADO STATE TROPICAL FORECAST TEAM is predicting the WARMER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPS may well prevail over the wind shear increase which typically occurs over the Atlantic Basin during El Niños. Increases in wind shear often decrease hurricane numbers by disrupting the organization of t-storms which must occur if a hurricane is to develop.
But as with seasonal weather of any kind, MULTIPLE FACTORS go into producing a given season’s weather—and that’s certainly the case with tropical cyclones. So 2023 is going to be an interesting hurricane season to monitor.
READ THE FULL COLORADO STATE 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST HERE: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf