Storms to continue to develop as they move east of the Chicago area, but severe weather watches are not expected to be issued

Weather
Mesoscale Discussion 1642
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   308 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

   Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292008Z - 292145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind/hail threat possible this
   afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a couple bands of storms
   developing, one along a pre-frontal trough situated across central
   into southwestern Lower Michigan and another along a cold front
   farther west. Afternoon heating has resulted in sufficient
   destabilization to produce MLCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg in the
   vicinity of these storms. Despite the relatively moderate buoyancy,
   deep-layer shear remains rather weak, with less than 20 kt of
   predominately unidirectional shear evident in the GRR VAD in all
   layers.

   Storms should continue to increase in coverage through the remainder
   of the afternoon and early evening, given the conditionally unstable
   environment and forcing for ascent from the advancing cold front to
   go along with subtle forcing and marginally enhanced mid-level flow
   along the southern extent of upper-level trough. The weakly sheared
   environment will limit storm organization, but some localized severe
   winds/hail are possible with the most intense storms that develop.
   Given the somewhat isolated/transient nature of the expected
   threats, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

  

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