Mesoscale Discussion 1642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 308 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292008Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind/hail threat possible this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a couple bands of storms developing, one along a pre-frontal trough situated across central into southwestern Lower Michigan and another along a cold front farther west. Afternoon heating has resulted in sufficient destabilization to produce MLCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg in the vicinity of these storms. Despite the relatively moderate buoyancy, deep-layer shear remains rather weak, with less than 20 kt of predominately unidirectional shear evident in the GRR VAD in all layers. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, given the conditionally unstable environment and forcing for ascent from the advancing cold front to go along with subtle forcing and marginally enhanced mid-level flow along the southern extent of upper-level trough. The weakly sheared environment will limit storm organization, but some localized severe winds/hail are possible with the most intense storms that develop. Given the somewhat isolated/transient nature of the expected threats, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.