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White Christmas prospects this year continue to look grim.

Christmas Eve Day (Friday) could be rainy instead.

Chicago’s “warm” climatological spring and winter to date has weather records rolling in–including the new record for the latest date for “no measurable snow in the Chicago” record to be tied at midnight Monday and likely broken Tuesday.

CHRISTMAS EVE DAY MIDDAY WEATHER MAP (for this Friday) off the European Centre’s ECMWF model showing rain for Chicago

When nature delivers warmer than normal temps for months at a time–as has been the case this year–it’s little wonder we’re watching snow records fall. Above normal temps have exceeded below normal readings by a margin of more than 2 to 1 since Sept 1, the start of this year’s climatological autumn season.

We approach Christmas with the prospect of 50+-degrees Friday and 40s on Christmas Day (Saturday) itself.

Since Sept 1 in Chicago, above normal days have outpaced below normal days by more than 2 to 1

Previous record for latest date without measurable snow: Dec 20, 2012 (0.2″). We’ll tie that record at midnight tonight since no snow is expected. And with no snow through the remainder of the week, we’ll keep extending the record the remainder of the week.

Any sticking snow on the horizon?

The morning run of the National Weather Service’s GFS model indicates at least a potential for measurable snow with a weather system toward Wednesday next week. That’s a long way off at this point, much can change and there are many ducks to get into order for that to happen. So that’s something to put in the “curious–but not yet a certainty” category.

Colder weather ahead in the New Year

Also of interest, there is a colder “look” to the emerging pattern for Chicago later next week and heading into the following weekend the week after. Chunks of arctic air may well have Chicago’s shivering weeks 1-2.

COLDER PATTERN forecast in the Day 10-15 period. These are GFS model predicted temp departures from the period from a week from this Thursday through the following Tuesday morning (Jan 4, 2022).

Hand in hand with the developing pattern is a big upper trough coming together over the Western U.S. and Chicago’s position on the “stormy” north side of the strong west/southwest out of that trough in model forecasts. It’s the kind of pattern in which it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine storm systems lifting out of the Rockies and riding into the Midwest. It’s the sort of things which piques our interest and which we will be monitoring.