A second day of July level warmth with temps flirting with the day’s 82 degree record—last set in 1941. The day is to finish 25 degrees above normal!
AND THE WARM WEATHER has two more days to run! It plans to stick around—courtesy of a blocking pattern over the country in the higher levels of the atmosphere. The so-called REX BLOCK—which occurs when warm air becomes trapped between cool rainy air to the south and north—slows bears the name of the meteorologist—DANIEL REX—who in 1950 first identified this upper air configuration’s tendency to slow the eastward progress of weather across the country.
It may surprise some—but the fact is, by a margin of well over two to one, days in 2023 have been WARMER THAN NORMAL 68% of the time. COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS have only occurred 27% of the time since January 1st.
The warmth is expansive and has been eating away at the snow pack—only a week ago nearly 3 feet deep in parts of the North Woods of Wisconsin and Upper Michigan—and it’s doing it BIG TIME. 16″ of snow has melted just since Friday in Bayfield in far northwest Wisconsin near Lake Superior and 15.5″ had melted through daybreak the past 4 days in Marquette, MI.
April, 2023’s opening 14 days are running an eyecatching 8-deg above normal—nearly 9-deg warmer than the same period a year ago.
Double digit temp surpluses are predicted Friday and Saturday with O’Hare highs of 82 and 84-deg predicted compared to normal highs of 59-deg.
BEACH GOERS will notice the return of a lake breeze right on the shoreline Friday. This is to set up a huge west to east temp spread across the Chicago area Friday—from the mid 60s on area beaches to the low and mid 80s inland.
PRECIPITATION may hold off until later Saturday and Saturday night. A cold front with an overhead jet stream sets the stage for t-storm development—the most concentrated coverage like to occur Saturday night into very early Sunday. A few scattered showers ir t-storms could impact 30% of the metro area later Saturday—but coverage will increase to 60 to 80% of the area Saturday night.
With strong winds predicted aloft, t-storms may be able to divert some of that wind energy to the surface as storm gusts. The Storm Prediction Center is projected a LEVEL 2 RISK on its 5 level scale Sat night.
WINDY MUCH COOLER WEATHER SWEEPS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, thought Sunday will open with 50s and give way to upper 40s or low 50s Monday afternoon after a period of 30s Sunday night.
ONE INTERESTING FORECAST UPDATE: It appears a second surge of 60s then 70s is to take shape next Wednesday and Thursday- Then a modestly BELOW NORMAL temp regime develops the following weekend and into the week which follows.
HERE’S MY LATEST THURSDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST:
TONIGHT: Scattered clouds and unseasonable mild. Gusty evening winds temporary wind down late. Low 57—a temp 17-deg above normal.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, continued unseasonably warm—but with cooling lake breezes limiting warming on area beaches and lakeshore areas. Breezy from the south by afternoon. High 83—but mid 60s on the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline. NORMAL APRIL 14 HIGH is 59.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, the mild temps continue. Low 59.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy, turning breezy. A fourth consecutive 80-deg or warmer day. Chance of a few spotty late day showers, possibly isolated thunder—but impacting only 30% of the area. High 84.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Showers and t-storms grow more numerous, some with possible strong winds and downpours. 60 to 80% of the area will have received rain by Sunday morning. Low 55.
SUNDAY: More cloudy than not, turning windy and noticeably cool after possible early morning showers and t-storms. A few spotty showers may redevelop later in the day as wind gusts build to 30 mph. High 55—falling into the 40s.
MONDAY: Quite windy and much cooler. Spotty morning showers possible—perhaps a mixed flake of snow in spots. Precip ends as the day proceeds. High 49.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, warmer. High 60.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over, windy and warmer. Chance of a shower or t-storm. High 69.
THURSDAY: Warm & breezy. Showery spells, possible thunder. High 74.