Chicagoans come off a cool Mother’s Day weekend. High temps averaged 3.5-deg below normal Sat & Sun—but when low temps are included, the weekend was actually finished close to normal. What made it feel so much cooler was the fact the weekend average more than 10-deg cooler than the weekend which preceded it.

Tuesday is to throw some thermal curves at Chicago—warming into the low 80s in the afternoon. But a windshifting pneumonia front—so labeled because of the jarring temp changes it produces—will sweep through the city from the north passing in the evening hours Tuesday.

Within a matter of hours, temps will crash up to 30 degrees—falling from the low 80s into the low to mid 50s. Current indications are the front will pass the city 6 to 7 p.m.—earlier North Shore areas and that NNE winds will sweep in gusting 25 to 30 mph along the lake.

This will introduce building waves and the onset of possible rip currents Tuesday night—something swimmers and area mariners should be aware of.

Lake water temps remain very chilly—averaging 50 degrees. So any swimming in such cold waters introduces a hypothermia risk which can sneak up on swimmers. It’s a little early in the season to be in such chilly waters for any period of time.

What follows is a cool Wednesday with cool winds off Lake Michigan—then a slow daytime temp rebound toward 80 by Thursday.

Cooling follows this weekend into early next week. But evidence for significant warming by the middle and end of next week continues to grow.

While this week’s temps are to come in near normal overall, temps next week, given current forecast trends, are to surge 7 degrees higher on a week long basis and nearly 4 degrees above normal. This translates to daytime average temps surging 5 to 11 degrees above normal each day from Wed forward and daily highs reaching into the low and mid 80s from Thursday forward next week.

The area continues dry. Precipitation since the beginning of meteorological spring on March 1 rank among the 33% driest springs of the past 151 years with rainfall more the 3″ below normal. While some showers are possible Friday, rainfalls aren’t showing signs of rebounding here significantly through the coming weekend.

HERE’S MY LATEST CHICAGO METRO FORECAST ISSUED MON AFT & EVENING (5/15/2023)

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, seasonable temp levels. Low 51.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and warmer—but with a sharp temp drop and a wind increase as a front passes in the late afternoon North Shore areas—reaching the city and northwest Indiana in the evening. High 82—but falling back to the 50s along Lake Michigan by and just afternoon nightfall.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds, scatter, breezy and cooler. Low 46.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and cool. High 64—but 50s on area beaches.

THURSDAY: A good deal of sunshine, warmer. High 79—but 60s area beaches.

FRIDAY: More cloudy than not, warm. Some showers and possible thunderstorms. High 75—but cooler near Lake Michigan.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and cooler. High 73—but upper 50s to low 60s along Lake Michigan.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, seasonable temps—but with cooler lake winds. High 70—but upper 50s or 60s lakeshore.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 73—cooler again along Lake Michigan.