hicago basks in unseasonable late march/early April level temps the next two days extending a string of 10 consecutive above normal temps with daytime averages tue & wed forecast 14 to 16-deg above normal–two precip systems in the coming; the first a rain-maker arriving late tuesday & tue night—the second thursday & thu night with a more complex precip distribution as temps lower—warmth back over the weekend then colder pattern could produce wintry precip next tue through thursday

For a February which started out so cold, the month has certainly staged a turnaround!

We have aeen temps more typical of late March than early February. The month is posting a 5.2-surplus and is running 5.3-deg above normal to date.

Monday marks the 10th consecutive day of above normal temps–that 10-day period alone averaging more than 9-deg above normal. And the “warmth” is to keep coming with a surge of Gulf moisture bringing clouds back to the area–clouds likely to produce rain late Tuesday–and even more likely to do so Tuesday night.

That’s but the first of a series of precip system which make the coming two weeks look active. A second more complex storm system sweeps out of the Rockies on a track which puts Chicago close to its rain/snow line and therefore destined for a range of precip Thursday into Friday. We’re where we’ve been since first flagging this system last week when it appeared we’d “walk the line” in terms of the second system’s precip phase.

Ultimately the track will dictate which area gets rain, which gets a wintry mix and which area gets snow.

Current model projections–continuing a line of reason we’ve see in recent days—suggest precip beginning as rain Thursday then transitioning to a mix and finally snow. If this line of reason were to hold, then the systems most significant snowfall would lay out to the city’s north favoring northwest and potential north-central Illinois and potentially northern counties along the Wisconsin line to more snow than elsewhere. But it sure looks at this point like a transition to snow will drop into Chicago and close-in suburbs as the system draws colder air into the area later Thursday.

There are many details to refine as this system comes into the area. It’s currently sweeping across the Pacific Northwest and there are days to look at fresher data and model runs. But the Thu/Thu night period will be one to monitor.

Looking ahead to next weekend

Warmth resurges over the weekend. We could see 40s then low 50s back Saturday and Sunday. But next week–though like this week–with a temp regime likely to come in above normal overall–is looking colder–in fact, around 4-deg colder. That puts an extended period of overrunning precip which appears a possibility from Tue through Thu next week in a colder environment which could see more wintry precip.

Much to monitor–and we’ll be doing that and keeping you posted!!