A markedly cooler Mother’s Day weekend’s ahead compared to last weekend’s warmth. Last weekend was the warmest of 2023 to date.

Northeast winds off Lake Michigan are to dominate the scene this Saturday and Sunday—strengthening Sat night and Sunday high pressure drops southward from Canada tightening the pressure gradient here. Winds gust see gusts topping 30 mph—especially in open areas and along Lake Michigan.

Temps this weekend will average 19-degrees cooler than last weekend. THAT’S A BIG CHANGE! While far inland high temps will reach the 60s Saturday, O’Hare’s likely to see just 58-deg—hardly the 78 which occurred a week ago. And on Sunday (Mother’s Day), highs may be restricted to 54-degrees—far below last Sunday’s record tying 87 before a late afternoon temp crash. Lakeshore temps Sunday could hold to the upper 40s.

The average southern Lake Michigan water temp is 52 degrees—so winds off that chilly water transport chilly temps ashore.

Clouds and precipitation are being monitored this weekend. The current thinking is precip Saturday may be sparse despite plentiful clouds which may only occasionally permit a peek of sun. Any precipitation Saturday is likely to occur as sprinkles or an occasional isolated shower—in contrast to the rains currently moving across the Chicago area and due to thin out in coverage later tonight.

Modeling continues to indicate a pick up in rain coverage, frequency and intensity later Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation coverage may decrease later Sunday. amid the gusty winds and unseasonably cool March-level temps.

The return of sun early next will allow a big boost in temps with highs surging more than 20-deg high Monday afternoon compared to the top readings Sunday. Highs Monday should surge into the 70s—though cooler lake breezes will continue at the lake. Monday could actually see temps approaching 80.

HERE’S MY LATEST FRIDAY AFT/EVE CHICAGO METRO FORECAST (5/12/23):

TONIGHT: Some showery spells—there could even be isolated thunder in a few spots. Rain coverage becomes more scattered late. Damp and mild. Low 54.

SATURDAY: More cloudy than not, cooler. A few light showers or some sprinkles or drizzle possible at times—but a number of hours should be rain-free. High as warm as 64 well inland—but 58 at O’Hare and only low to mid 50s lakeshore.

SATURDAY NIGHT and SUNDAY: Cloudy and cool with slowly strengthening northeast winds. Initially spotty rainfall increases into Sunday. Wind gusts may build to 30 mph Sunday amid March level temps. Low Saturday night 48. High Sunday 54—but upper 40s beaches and lakeshore.

MONDAY: Sunny, less windy and much warmer. High 75—but 60s lakeshore.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness and warmer. Chance of a shower late with temps falling with a windshift toward evening. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, cooler. High 67.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Warmer again. Late day or nighttime showers possible. High 76.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler. High 74—but lower along Lake Michigan.

But BIG CHANGES in the North American upper air pattern related to the development of a huge and unseasonably strong dome of warm air over western Canada where record high temps may occur is to buckle the jet stream in a huge ridge there. When that happens, upper winds shift northwesterly over the Midwest and this is to bring BELOW NORMAL temps back into the area the back half of next week.

There are indications that warming will follow the week after and that temps could surge into the 80s. Forecast trends for that period will definitely be worth monitoring.