Prediction of warming for Chicago in the days ahead intact, weekend temps here to average 10 to 14 degrees above normal and sunnier skies expected.
An unseasonably warm weekend is on the way, though southeasterly lake breezes—in other words, winds which blow in from the southeast and therefore move over the area from Lake Michigan—will be present. They will come off southern Lake Michigan waters which have cooled 10.5 degrees since late August and now average 62 degrees with some shoreline locations reporting mid 60-deg water temps.
The southeast weekend winds will modestly lower beach and shoreline temps compared to the low and mid 80s expected inland. On Saturday, for instance, inland temps will surge to 83 Saturday while beachside temps in Chicago will reach 75. And on Sunday, the inland to lakeside spread should be 86 degrees inland to 77 on area beaches.
Still, average weekend temps are expected to come in 10 to 14-degrees above normal. And the WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER REGIME is to remain intact with daily 80 degrees or warmer daytime highs expected Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
The dome of warm air predicted to build over the central U.S. and produce Chicago weekend warmth won’t produce records here—but reading may rise to with 5 to 10 degrees of the record highs on the books here of 92 readings both Saturday and Sunday—(both set in 1971).
While Chicago won’t see records, current indications are temps WILL REACH CLOSE TO IF NOT ACTUALLY ESTABLISH some new records across parts 11 states—from New Mexico into the Plains and some Gulf Coast locations.
The remnant cloud cover and cooler temps aloft lingered Friday in the wake of have held Thursday. And some clouds—though decreasing in coverage with time—are likely to still be around Friday. So Friday should produce MORE MIXED SUN as the day (which is to open with some cloud cover) proceeds.
Chicago managed only 18% of our possible sun today. Cloud coverage will come down a bit (though NOT be totally absent) Friday with the best estimate indicating as much as 70 to 80% of the sky may see clouds as Friday opens dropping to half the sky at lunchtime and to 10 to 15% of the sky by Friday evening.
Big forecast changes have been introduced to our forecast later next week and in the weekend which follows thanks to a buckling jet stream which is to send much cooler canadian air and more than a hint of autumn in the air late next week and in the weekend which follows.
Yesterday, only the NWS “GFS” model indicated the pattern shift aloft later next week into the week which follows. Today, virtually all national meteorological center supercomputer model projections—the Canadian, Korean, Germanand Japanese global forecast models among them—now have a strong push of cool air bringing an autumnlike air mass into the country.
While the coming 7-days are to average 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the nation’s mid-section (taking us through next Thursday), current model indications are the 7 to 14 day period is to come in as much as 5-deg below normal. Put differently, the predicted pattern change could bring about a jarring 15 to 20-deg week to week temp drop. The weekend that follows this weekend in Chicago, if current forecast guidance holds, may well average 15-deg cooler—-A BIG CHANGE!
It’s keeping an eye on shifts in forecast patterns which keeps us coming to work each day. And IT IS AUTUMN—cool surges will become more common in the months to come, though we’re not done with warm temps yet—and coming days certainly look WARM as we prepare for our transition from Sept to Oct this Saturday and Sunday.
HERE’S MY LATEST THURSDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST (9/28/2023):
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy and mild for the season. Periods of calm likely allow some patchy ground fog cooler inland locations. Low 61—but mid 50s cooler inland locations.
FRIDAY: Clouds break allowing mixed sunshine. Modestly warmer. High 77—but closer to 70 on area beaches.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds scatter. Similar nighttime temps. Low 59—with some low to mid 50s and a little patchy fog late outlying areas.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Generous daytime sunshine, only some cottony fair weather cumulus clouds— with warming temps. Daytime highs surge 10 to 16-deg above normal inland. Southeasterly lake breezes will modestly cool area beaches—but it still looks like there will be great late season beach-going weather. High Saturday 83; Sunday and Monday’s high 86—and an 85 predicted Tuesday. Nighttime lows in the low and mid 60—but some upper 50s inland.
WEDNESDAY: More clouds but with mixed sun and warm temps continuing. Breezy from the south/southwest. High 85.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Scattered showers, possibly a few t-storms. High 79.