Good Monday all! This marked the 10^th consecutive day of ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.  That 10-day period alone has averaged over 9-deg above normal and has seen late March-level low 50-deg temps in the area. 

Not only has it been unseasonably mild—it’s also been incredibly sunny with Frank Wachowski reporting near 100% of possible sun here in Chiago each of the past four days–Friday, Sat, Sun & today (Mon).

And the warmth isn’t done.  Two more 50-deg days are on tap.

The BIG CHANGE will be the arrival of the first of two precip systems expected to sweep the area this week.  Gulf moisture is to sweep into each.

Clouds begin arriving late tonight and a solid overcast will have taken over by lunchtime Tuesday with rains commencing in the mild air toward evening and continuing Tuesday night.

Precip ends Wednesday as the next, more significant storm system sweeps out of the Rockies due to impact Chicago by Thursday and Thursday night.

That system, currently diving into the Pacific Northwest, is to spin up a surface low over Texas and Oklahoma which is predicted to track northeastward into northwest Indiana Thursday. Such a track tugs colder air into the Greater Chicago area Thursday and could make it a day in which precip, which may well start as rain—transitions to a mix or to wet snow—continuing into Thursday night.

Details on this system will be refined in coming days. Ultimately—as is always the case with systems like this—the track of the system will be important. A more southerly track would boost wintry precip chances in Chicago; conversely a more northerly track would favor a longer period of liquid form precip. It will be interesting to follow this system’s evolution.

Mild air sweeps back over the coming week. Saturday 40s transition to Sunday low 50s if current forecast trends hold.  But next week, though likely to continue above normal—will see temps average 4-deg colder. And an extended period of precip in the Tue to Thu time frame appears likely to occur in a colder temp regime which increases chance more of it may take a wintry form.

It worth noting only 3 Februarys since snow observations have been kept in Chicago—have ended up completely snow free.  Only three! At the moment, Feb 2023 is snow-free.  But with the rarity of completely snow free Februarys a part of the record, the sense that another shoe may drop at some point and a more wintry truen in our Feb weather take place at some point is hardly unreasonable. So next week’s pattern will be interesting to monitor as well.

MONDAY: Becoming partly cloudy late. Comparatively mild for the season. Low 31.

TUESDAY: Clouding over, turning windy. Temps remain at late March/early April levels—WELL ABOVE NORMAL. Rain prospects increase later in the day. Wind gusts build to 30 mph in the afternoon from the south/southeast.  High 56—a reading more than 20-deg above normal.

TUESDAY NIGHT:  Rain likely, mild and windy. Low 42.

WEDNESDAY: Some cloud breaks allow mixed sunshine. Still mild. High 52.

THURSDAY: Turning windy. Rain developing in Chicago and a possible wintry mix north toward the Wisconsin line, turning colder. Precipitation may transition to wet snow across a swath of the Chicago area Thursday afternoon then change to a period of snow Thursday night. High Thursday 37—falling slowly amid gusty winds in the afternoon.

FRIDAY: Partial clearing, breezy and colder. High 33.

SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness, windy and milder. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy, windy and mild. High 52.

MONDAY: Clouding over and mild. Chance of some rain later in the day—but more likely at night. High 46.