What a to start the new week! Temps surged into the low 70s today—following a weekend which ended up 6-degrees warmer than the weekend which preceded it.
The likely ultimate high near 73-degrees Monday will come in 20-degress above normal and, while not a record for Nov 6th, CLOSE! Only two Nov 6’s over the 153 year term of official records here in Chicago have been any warmer—-75-degrees on this date in 1975—48 years ago—and a 75-degree high Nov 6, 1916—107 years ago.
The mild air is the product of a westerly or “zonal” flow across the Lower 48. This is a pattern in which upper level steering winds sweep mild oceanic air off the Pacific and across the country. Zonal flows are frequent visitors in many El Nino cool seasons and it’s the fact they guide maritime rather than chilly continental air our of Canada across the country that mild temps dominate such cool seasons. It doesn’t by any means that cold blasts will be completely absent—but they may end up less frequent than in many typical Chicago winters.
It’s been windy as a autumn storm system has been riding the westerly jet stream winds across the northern Great Lakes just north of Sault Ste Marie, MIwith gusts as high as 33 mph at Chicago O’Hare—but gusts as high as 48 mph at the offshore Harrison Dever Crib 3 miles off the North Chicago shoreline, 39 mph at Waukegan and 37 mph at Sugar Grove, Kenosha WI, Michigan City and Midway Airport.
A cold front slips through Monday night bringing noticeably cooler temps Tuesday—especially along Lake Michigan as northwest morning winds shift NE off the 53-degrees waters of southern Lake Michigan. It’s worth noting Chicago shoreline water temps are now nearly 20-degrees cooler than they were at the end of August as we head deeper into the autumn season.
There’s another autumn storm system expected to sweep the Chicago area—this one with rainfall predicted to arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Gust east/southeast winds are to blow later Tuesday night into Wed night then shift northwest Thursday.
Chillier air takes hold the back half of this week and into the coming weekend—but temps are to rebound as normal temps continue dropping off next week. When all is said and done, temps in the coming week are to average more than 4-degrees above normal—a rebound of 9-degrees from last week’s chill which included Halloween snow. And next week may come in close to 10-degrees above normal as Pacific air resurges into the Midwest.
HERE’S MY LATEST MONDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST (11/6/2023)
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and turning cooler with initially gusty winds shifting north and easing to 6 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY: Mixed sun gives way to an incoming overcast. Cooler with winds shifting northeast off Lake Michigan. High 56—but low 50s lakeshore.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: Growing prospects for occasional rain, breezy and milder. Low Tuesday night 46. High Wednesday 60—but low to mid 50s along Lake Michigan.
THURSDAY: Clearing, breezy and cooler. High 55.
FRIDAY: Generous sunshine, a bit breezy and seasonably cool. High 53.
SATURDAY: Cloudy spells, cool. A few scattered light showers possible. High 50.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy, continued cool. High 53.
MONDAY: Sunshine and milder. High 57.