Severe weather potential this evening.

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The air mass over northern Illinois and adjacent states has become quite unstable. Severe thunderstorms over Iowa will continue developing into SW Wisconsin during the late afternoon. Isolated, to scattered t-storms may pop up quickly across the metro area late this afternoon as well, but these are not part of the organized, severe system to our northwest.

The Iowa/Wisconsin storm complex may develop southeastward across northern Illinois during the evening, posing a damaging wind threat.

Mesoscale discussion issued by the SPC at 2:50 PM CDT
Mesoscale Discussion 1159
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Iowa...southern Wisconsin...northern

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 348...

   Valid 091951Z - 092145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 348

   SUMMARY...A threat of severe wind gusts and marginal hail continues
   across watch 348, and may spread east into southern Wisconsin and
   northern Illinois, necessitating another watch.

   DISCUSSION...An impressive flourish of storms near the meso-low/MCV
   has produced several measured severe gusts over IA. The primary low
   is now intersecting the east-west oriented outflow boundary over
   southern WI and far southeast MN, with cooler air to the north
   likely reducing wind potential. That said, this outflow boundary may
   stall and mix out, with a resurgence of larger SBCAPE northward into
   WI this evening.

   While the MCV is moving relatively slowly east, there still may be
   potential for at least isolated severe wind/hail across the warm
   sector over IL and southern WI where the air mass is clearly
   uncapped. Only subtle lift will be required to initiate storms in
   this air mass. The combination of storms along the MCV and any
   additional lead storms may necessitate a severe thunderstorm watch
   later this afternoon.
Visible satellite imagery showing severe storm complex north/west of Chicago.

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