Severe storm threat this Thursday evening – Severe T-storm Watch issuance possible south and west of Chicago

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Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri this evening, and then move east into Illinois. Severe storms may occur, and the National Storm Prediction Center has issued the Mesoscale Discussion for this storm potential below:

Mesoscale Discussion 0585
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Iowa and northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142219Z - 150015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation is likely through 7 PM CDT across
   southeast IA and into northern IL. Hail and strong winds will be the
   primary threats with these storms. A watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a cluster of
   developing storms across portions of far southeast IA within a broad
   low-level warm frontal zone. Continued thunderstorm development is
   likely within the next hour from this cluster with additional
   convective initiation possible further east into northern/northwest
   IL. Zonal deep layer flow along the warm frontal zone will favor
   discrete storms gradually growing upscale as they develop in an
   environment characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 knots
   of effective bulk shear. Sufficient CAPE/shear and a well-mixed
   boundary layer below 1 km suggest hail and strong winds will be the
   primary threats from these storms, while generally weak low level
   winds sampled from the KDVN VWP suggest a low tornado threat. A
   watch is possible if trends continue to favor a sufficiently
   widespread convective threat into northern IL.


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