Mesoscale Discussion 1392 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Areas affected...parts of northern into central Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440... Valid 060324Z - 060500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts remain possible for the next couple of hours across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440. DISCUSSION...An MCS with a recent history of estimated strong to severe gusts continues to progress eastward across the remainder of eastern Iowa and is expected to traverse northern into central Illinois over the next few hours. While appreciable instability remains (i.e. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), MLCINH is increasing given nocturnal cooling ahead of the MCS, with surface temperatures quickly dropping into the lower 80s F. Temperatures are in the lower 70s F behind the MCS leading line, suggesting a -10 to -15 F cold pool continues to drive the MCS. Given the strength of the cold pool, isolated damaging gusts remain a concern across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440 for at least a couple more hours. A local extension in area/time of the watch across northeast IL may be necessary.