As of 3PM CDT the Severe Weather Outlook has been updated with no change to the Slight/Enhanced threats to the Chicago area. However there is now an increased Moderate Risk (45% chance of a severe storm within 25 miles of a given location) of Severe T-storms generating 75 mph winds or greater from eastern Lake Michigan through southern Lower Michigan/northern Indiana into Ohio (Red-shaded area on the headlined map).

Narrative from the Storm Prediction Center below:

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND WESTERN
   OHIO...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
   northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great
   Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
   tornadoes are possible. Some of the winds could be significantly
   severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley this
   afternoon and tonight.

   ...20Z Update...
   Portions of the Ohio Valley have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk
   for the anticipation of a highly organized MCS/possible Derecho
   developing from a supercell structure across southern WI. Despite
   the lack of agreement in high-resolution guidance, this supercell is
   traversing a strong buoyancy gradient (with extreme MLCAPE values
   exceeding 5000 J/kg noted in the OH Valley). In addition, 40+ kts of
   effective bulk shear are also present along the buoyancy gradient,
   which expands across a long west-east corridor over northern
   portions of the OH Valley. Expectations are for this supercell
   (which already shows an intense RFD surge per latest KMKX radar
   data) to eventually become more outflow dominant, generating a
   strong cold pool preceded by the extreme instability. Upscale growth
   with the cold pool would support an expanding MCS traversing a
   CAPE/shear parameter space typically associated with bow
   echoes/derechoes. In addition, multicells continue to percolate
   across central IN amid an extremely unstable environment (i.e. 5000+
   J/kg MLCAPE per 18Z mesoanalysis) and an appreciable severe wind
   threat could develop with this cluster as well should upscale growth
   occur.

   A significant wind area has been added to portions of the Slight
   Risk across portions of central into northern South Dakota. Here,
   the potential exists for an HP supercell/short bowing segment to
   manifest from earlier storms along or immediately behind the surface
   cold front somewhere within the 03-06Z period (especially in the
   12-18Z runs of the HRRR) and traverse an axis of high-end elevated
   buoyancy (i.e. 4000 J/kg MUCAPE driven by 9 C/km deep-layer lapse
   rates). Should this scenario unfold, 75+ mph gusts may occur in
   addition to 2+ inch hail. Consideration was considered for an
   upgrade to a Category 3/Enhanced. However, the localized
   nature/expected limited coverage of the higher-end severe threat
   precludes an upgrade. Please see MCD #1144 for short-term severe
   concerns across the northern Plains.