NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0622 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern MO...southeastern IA and
   northwestern IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 312322Z - 010045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few clusters of strong to severe storms will be possible
   along and east of a slow moving cold front later this evening.
   Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail appear to be the primary
   threats. It remains unclear if a watch will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...As of 6:20PM CDT, late afternoon visible imagery showed some
   enchantment to cumulus towers/weak thunderstorms along a slow moving
   cold front from far northeastern MO into portions of southeastern
   IA. Regional surface observations ahead of the developing convection
   show a warm and moist airmass with surface TDs in the upper 60s to
   low 70s F. Overlying the surface moisture, moderately steep
   mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km were supporting around 2000 J/kg
   of MLCAPE. Lingering mid-level flow is also aiding in 30-40 kt of
   effective shear suggesting some storm organization is possible.
   Within the favorable parameter space, if convection is able to be
   maintained, more organized multi-cell clusters and perhaps some
   transient supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and
   isolated hail will be possible. It remains unclear if and how many
   organized severe storms may develop owing to weak forcing for ascent
   and lingering cloud cover. Conditions will be monitored for the
   possibility of a weather watch should storms continue to develop and
   organize.