NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Areas affected...portions of northeastern MO...southeastern IA and northwestern IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312322Z - 010045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few clusters of strong to severe storms will be possible along and east of a slow moving cold front later this evening. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail appear to be the primary threats. It remains unclear if a watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...As of 6:20PM CDT, late afternoon visible imagery showed some enchantment to cumulus towers/weak thunderstorms along a slow moving cold front from far northeastern MO into portions of southeastern IA. Regional surface observations ahead of the developing convection show a warm and moist airmass with surface TDs in the upper 60s to low 70s F. Overlying the surface moisture, moderately steep mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km were supporting around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Lingering mid-level flow is also aiding in 30-40 kt of effective shear suggesting some storm organization is possible. Within the favorable parameter space, if convection is able to be maintained, more organized multi-cell clusters and perhaps some transient supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible. It remains unclear if and how many organized severe storms may develop owing to weak forcing for ascent and lingering cloud cover. Conditions will be monitored for the possibility of a weather watch should storms continue to develop and organize.