Severe weather stays south Monday night


Much needed rain was in store for the Chicago area Monday.

Areas South of Chicago at bigger risk for severe weather

The chance of thunderstorms occurring within 20 miles of any specific location between late afternoon and midnight is put at 50% – 60% over the Chicago area as a whole, but the chance of these storms being severe runs in the 5% to 10% range. A severe storms can and does occur with that level of risk. What those numbers strongly suggest is that the threat of a widespread damaging severe weather outbreak isn’t large.

But indicators seem to point to the late Monday/early Monday night system posing the greatest risk of severe storms downstate–i.e. to Chicago’s south. That’s an area that the latest computer modeling suggests may be traversed by a “bowed” line of t-storms—that’s one which takes on the appearance of an “arc-shaped”, fast moving band of t-storms on weather radar. Such an “arc” or “bow” shaped appearance often indicates t-storms gushing out powerful–even damaging—winds out across the landscape over which they’re moving.

The portion of the Greater Chicago area at risk for those storms includes sections of LaSalle, Livingston, Ford and Iroquois counties–possibly a portions of Kankakee county. If tornadoes are going to occur, those appear the areas–as well as other downstate areas to their west and south—with the highest level of risk. That’s a region placed in the “slight” risk category by the NWS Storm Prediction Center.

More rain is possible Tuesday and again later this week.

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