Possible Severe weather development n eastern Iowa, southwest Wisconsin and western Illinois

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The National Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale outlook projecting about a 60 percent probability of a Severe Storm Watch issuance over eastern Iowa, southwestern Wisconsin and western Illinois before 3PM CDT. The affected area is depicted within the escalloped area on the headlined map. Following is the technical discussion:

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251807Z - 252000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradually increasing storm strength and organization may
   result in a high enough severe threat to merit a watch. Damaging
   wind gusts are the primary threat, although a tornado or two cannot
   be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Cold front continues to steadily progress eastward
   across IA with a developing convective line along its leading edge.
   This convective line has shown generally steady-state intensity over
   the past hour or so but the downstream thermodynamic environment
   appears a bit more favorable for intensification as warmer
   temperatures promote stronger instability, particularly across
   eastern IA. Farther east (i.e. northern IL and southern WI),
   temperatures and dewpoints are a bit lower and the thermodynamic
   environment does not currently appear particularly favorable. Even
   so, continued heating plus mid-level cooling associated with the
   approaching shortwave trough should result in enough instability for
   storm persistence/maintenance.

   Linear character of the ongoing storms suggests the primary severe
   threat will be damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also
   possible with the strongest portion of the line. Warm mid-level
   temperatures and the resulting lack of steeper lapse rates should
   keep hail sizes predominately below severe thresholds. Recent trends
   suggest severe coverage may high enough to merit a watch.



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