Pacific, Atlantic revving up for prime time hurricane season

Weather

The tropics are suddenly coming alive–in both the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic.

This has been expected for some time. We are heading toward “prime time” in the hurricane season.

The satellite presentation of Hurricane Genevieve off the west coast off Mexico is stunning–symmetrical with a perfectly form eye and still undergoing intensification. Tropical cyclones in that region of the eastern Pacific usually are. Rapid intensification occurs there over warm ocean waters.

Its sustained winds are at 130 mph and National Hurricane Center forecasters are taking them up to 150 mph over the coming 24 hours.

But Genevieve’s northwesterly movement is to take it over colder ocean waters, a move which will quickly sap its energy.

Still, Genevieve is delivering high surf and rain to sections of the Mexican coast.
CIMSS research Scott Bachmeier at the University of Wisconsin posts these close-up satellite animations of Genevieve–both visible and color-ehanced infrared.

Meantime, two tropical disturbances are being closely monitored in the Atlantic by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

One of them, situated north of the South American coast, is to move into a more favorable environment as it drifts into the northwestern Caribbean later this week and is given a 60% chance of development.

The second, far at sea 900 miles west/southwest off the Cape Verge Islands and northwestbound, is given a 5-day 90% probability of development with NHC suggesting it may become a tropical depression in coming days. Shear is to remain low and the system is to move over warm ocean waters and a region of high ocean heat content, generally supportive of development.

What’s a bit surprising are the conservative intensity forecasts off a series of model runs. These are very preliminary forecasts so no reason to believe they’re carved in stone and it will be interesting to say what tropical forecasters at NHC have to say about this system as development proceeds and fresher model runs and data come on line in the days ahead.

Here’s a wide animated satellite view of all tropical systems courtesy of CIRA-RAMBB.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been proceeding at a hyperactive pace, having at this comparatively early date already moved through 10 names on the list of 21. The Atlantic basin storm names which are next in line:

  • Kyle
  • Laura
  • Marco
  • Nana
  • Omar
  • Paulette
  • Rene
  • Sally
  • Teddy
  • Vicky
  • Wilfred


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