More rain, storms expected Sunday night then dry Labor Day

Weather

Wet and windy weather ahead Sunday!

Wind and warmth sweep in this afternoon with some non-thunderstorm gusts potentially topping 40-45 mph.

For any outdoor planning you may wish to do this afternoon and tonight, the latest thinking on the next round of showers and storms are expected to arrive tonight with some potentially strong and healthy downpour-producers.

Anticipate breaks in the clouds and at least some emerging sunshine as the afternoon and evening proceed. Nature may pop a thunderstorm in spots but any coverage looks to be limited.

Check out the map of wind gusts already today which I’ve posted below which details observed gusts to our west in western Illinois and in Iowa and Wisconsin. Here’s an animated wind forecast for later today.

Here’s the:

It appears the 9 p.m. and 1 a.m. time frame is when they reach the city, a bit earlier west and northwest suburbs.

These are in conjunction with a cold front and their arrival comes with a severe weather threat assessed as “slight” by the NWS Storm Prediction Center. The actual probability of damaging thunderstorm winds is put at 15%. That’s in line with most severe weather set-ups here and, while that doesn’t sound high, it’s above the normal level of threat associated with t-storms here.

Labor Day

Some good news!

A break in the rains are anticipated Monday for the Labor Day holiday. So break out the grills and proceed with any outdoor plans free of rain worries.

The week ahead

But that’s not the end of the rain threat over the coming week.

There’s been a change in model projections overnight. They dig the trough expected to form in the central U.S. southward later this week, but they do so farther west than earlier runs. This delays the onset of additional rounds of rain expected later this work week to next weekend.

But having said that, an examination of model rainfall forecasts and the blended model forecast out of the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) still generates from 1.50 to 3.40″ of additional rainfall in addition to what has fallen overnight and Sunday morning.

That forecast takes into account the thundery downpours anticipated Sunday and new rains and thundery downpours expected Monday night into Tuesday.

 So the message continues to be needed rain ahead in the coming week. The change would produce drying later this week and introduce additional rain this weekend.

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