Mild start to the weekend but winds blow in changes late Sunday

Weather

A mild sunny Saturday ahead but windy storm is to lift out of the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday and Monday. Strong winds, lakeshore wave and flood issues  are possible with lake effect snows–especially northwest Indiana.

November Warmth

November is in its waning days and the weather is to play a familiar “late-autumn role” as we move toward December’s arrival this coming Tuesday. We’re to watch as sunshine and mild Pacific air gives way to a blustery, chilly intrusion later this weekend and early next week.

We really can’t complain. Friday marks the 10th consecutive day of above normal temps here. (It’s sure not felt that way with all the rain and clouds, has it?) And November 2020 will close this day 7-degrees above normal.

Here are some other interesting points about the month’s “warmth”:

  •  November 2020 to date is running 5th warmest of all November 1-27’s over the past 150 years
  •  This November is 13.7-deg warmer than the same period one year ago
This is a spaghetti plot of the storm tracks being predicted with the late weekend/early week Gulf of Mexico storm system. The track being indicated would keep the storm’s most widespread “system snowfall” to the east of Chicago—but doesn’t preclude lake effect snow which seems to be targeting areas downwind of the Great Lakes–including northwest Indiana and, for a time, possibly extreme northeast Illinois, including eastern Cook county and the Illinois/Indiana border area. NOTE: It’s early. A westward shift in this storm track would bring “system snow” farther west. But the tracks indicated here have been consistent in a series of recent model runs suggesting something would have to change pretty significantly for the track trend to shift west. Still, stranger things have been known to happen–so stay tuned.

Snow next week?

The graphics which follow lay out Saturday’s weather–but also offer you a set of forecast panels tracking the Gulf storm and its intensification as it lifts into the Appalachian. You’re able to see the predicted evolution of its precipitation. Also evident is the “plume” or corridor of lake effect snow predicted to sweep into northwest Indiana and possibly extreme northeast Illinois Sunday night into Monday and Monday night.

Lake snow development depends not only the length of time the cold winds producing it spend over the lake waters from which the moisture is lifted but also on a big drop in temps from the lake surface to a mile above it. A temp drop through that layer of 16-deg is enough to get cloud and snow formation going.

What’s being predicted by Monday is a 31 to 36-deg temp drop in the first mile of the atmosphere–which suggests possibly formidable lake snow development. So it’s possible we’re going to see some significant snow accumulation in northwest Indiana.

It’s early yet–the storm’s still days away. But we’re sure getting some signs this one is worth monitoring.

Also, the strength of the winds being predicted Monday and the fact they’ll be traveling southward the full length of Lake Michigan suggests prodigious wave development and increased lake levels as water piles up against the south shoreline. If true, we’re headed for lakeshore flood advisories Sunday night into Monday night and possibly Tuesday.

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