A mild sunny Saturday ahead but windy storm is to lift out of the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday and Monday. Strong winds, lakeshore wave and flood issues are possible with lake effect snows–especially northwest Indiana.
November is in its waning days and the weather is to play a familiar “late-autumn role” as we move toward December’s arrival this coming Tuesday. We’re to watch as sunshine and mild Pacific air gives way to a blustery, chilly intrusion later this weekend and early next week.
We really can’t complain. Friday marks the 10th consecutive day of above normal temps here. (It’s sure not felt that way with all the rain and clouds, has it?) And November 2020 will close this day 7-degrees above normal.
Here are some other interesting points about the month’s “warmth”:
- November 2020 to date is running 5th warmest of all November 1-27’s over the past 150 years
- This November is 13.7-deg warmer than the same period one year ago
Snow next week?
The graphics which follow lay out Saturday’s weather–but also offer you a set of forecast panels tracking the Gulf storm and its intensification as it lifts into the Appalachian. You’re able to see the predicted evolution of its precipitation. Also evident is the “plume” or corridor of lake effect snow predicted to sweep into northwest Indiana and possibly extreme northeast Illinois Sunday night into Monday and Monday night.
Lake snow development depends not only the length of time the cold winds producing it spend over the lake waters from which the moisture is lifted but also on a big drop in temps from the lake surface to a mile above it. A temp drop through that layer of 16-deg is enough to get cloud and snow formation going.
What’s being predicted by Monday is a 31 to 36-deg temp drop in the first mile of the atmosphere–which suggests possibly formidable lake snow development. So it’s possible we’re going to see some significant snow accumulation in northwest Indiana.
It’s early yet–the storm’s still days away. But we’re sure getting some signs this one is worth monitoring.
Also, the strength of the winds being predicted Monday and the fact they’ll be traveling southward the full length of Lake Michigan suggests prodigious wave development and increased lake levels as water piles up against the south shoreline. If true, we’re headed for lakeshore flood advisories Sunday night into Monday night and possibly Tuesday.