Mesoscale Discussion – update on Tornado Watch

Areas affected...central and north-central IL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 521...

   Valid 3:40PM - 5PM CDT

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 521 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for wind damage and a couple of transient
   mesovortices capable of a short-lived/weak tornado, will probably
   maximize over the next 1-2 hours as a bowing squall line quickly
   moves northeastward across north-central IL.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a maturing squall line in the
   vicinity of a surface low over west-central IL.  The airmass over
   the northern third of IL is moist (mid 60s surface dewpoints) but
   clouds have tempered overall destabilization this afternoon. 
   Nonetheless, weak buoyancy noted in RAP forecast soundings will aid
   in storm vigor as the squall line moves northeast across central and
   northwest IL through the early evening.  The primary risk will be
   damaging gusts in association with surging areas of the squall line,
   but a short-lived tornado is possible with more intense
   eddies/mesovortices that become sustained as this activity moves
   across the I-74 and I-80 corridors during the next few hours.  One
   limitation that may limit the overall severe risk is weaker shear
   evident at the Davenport, IA 88D VAD and this may limit the severe
   risk near the MS River.

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