Mesoscale Discussion – strong/potentially severe storms possible across northern Illinois remainder of the afternoon into the evening

Mesoscale Discussion 1282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

   Areas affected...southern Wisconsin...far northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141901Z - 142100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage or marginal hail will be possible
   over the next few hours, mainly focused over southern Wisconsin.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive line of storms currently stretches from
   central into southern WI, and across northwest IL where the line
   contains less trailing stratiform precipitation. Indications of
   strong to possible severe gusts are currently present with activity
   north of the IL border, and these storms may persist as the air mass
   remains favorably unstable despite high cloud cover. Around 1000
   J/kg MLCAPE exists ahead of these storms, extending south into IL.

   Some uptick in storm intensity is possible as the line moves into
   slightly more unstable air. Aside from isolated damaging gusts,
   marginal hail may occur at times. Convective trends are currently
   being monitored for watch potential.
Current Regional Weather Radar Mosaic

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