Mesoscale Discussion 1561
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0728 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL...northern/central
   IN...and western OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...488...

   Valid 231228Z - 231400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487, 488
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph should
   remain the primary severe threat as thunderstorms move
   east-southeastward this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has congealed into an MCS this morning
   across northern IN and far eastern IL. Two measured severe wind
   gusts to 67 and 73 mph have recently been reported with this
   activity, along with associated damage. Even though deep-layer shear
   remains modest, current expectations are for this cluster to
   continue moving east-southeastward across parts of northern/central
   IN and western OH over the next couple of hours. The 12Z sounding
   from ILN shows steep mid-level lapse rates and around 2800 J/kg of
   MUCAPE. This substantial buoyancy also extends into central IN ahead
   of the ongoing MCS per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Given the
   linear nature of the convection and 5-6 mb per 2 hour surface
   pressure rises observed behind it, scattered severe/damaging winds
   will likely remain the primary severe threat in the short term as
   low-level lapse rates continue to steepen with daytime heating.