Mesoscale Discussion 1145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   Areas affected...Southern WI...Far Northeast IL - Inside
   Escalloped portion of headlined map 

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 2:57M - 5PM CDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and strong wind gusts are possible across
   southern WI and possibly far northeast IL. Upscale growth into a
   convective line is possible. A watch will be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places the warm from central IA
   eastward into far northern IL. Strong warm-air advection continues
   across this boundary, supported by the persistent low-level jet
   extending from the central Plains into southern IA. A pair of
   stronger thunderstorms are ongoing across southwest WI, at the
   southern edge of a large precipitation cluster. These storms are
   within the  instability gradient, which is oriented from northwest
   to southeast across southern WI (and extending into northern IN and
   southwest Lower MI). In addition to this buoyancy, mesoanalysis
   estimates effective bulk shear around 50 kt within this region as
   well. 

   These environmental conditions will support the potential for large
   hail and damaging wind gusts. The lead storm (currently in Dane
   County WI) has a robust updraft and has now persisted longer than
   other cells within the region. KMKX shows a strong RFD with this
   storm and a transition into more of a convective line may be
   underway. A watch will be needed soon across the region.