Mesoscale Discussion 1892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Areas affected...much of central and southwestern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 5:11PM - 7:45PM CDT Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms including damaging wind and tornadoes are possible along the warm front into central Illinois, and with other storms forming along and ahead of the cold front later this evening into southern Illinois and vicinity. DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently straddles the warm front, extending from northern IL into northeast MO. Southern parts of this line near Pike County MO are showing signs of organization and rotation, and are close to the warm front. A moist and unstable air mass exists near this boundary, and favorably strong shear may result in damaging winds and tornadoes as it treks east/northeast where 0-1 SRH exceed 200 m2/s2. To the northeast, parts of east/northeast IL may experience destabilization later this evening as the low levels jet continues to mix the boundary layer. Farther south, a pre-frontal band of storms over south-central MO may eventually become better organized with shear favoring supercells and/or QLCS structures.