Mesoscale Discussion – severe storm potential central and southern Illinois this Sunday evening

Mesoscale Discussion 1892
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

   Areas affected...much of central and southwestern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 5:11PM - 7:45PM CDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms including damaging wind and tornadoes are
   possible along the warm front into central Illinois, and with other
   storms forming along and ahead of the cold front later this evening
   into southern Illinois and vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently straddles the warm front,
   extending from northern IL into northeast MO. Southern parts of this
   line near Pike County MO are showing signs of organization and
   rotation, and are close to the warm front. A moist and unstable air
   mass exists near this boundary, and favorably strong shear may
   result in damaging winds and tornadoes as it treks east/northeast
   where 0-1 SRH exceed 200 m2/s2. To the northeast, parts of
   east/northeast IL may experience destabilization later this evening
   as the low levels jet continues to mix the boundary layer. Farther
   south, a pre-frontal band of storms over south-central MO may
   eventually become better organized with shear favoring supercells
   and/or QLCS structures.

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