Mesoscale Discussion 1346 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Areas affected...far eastern IA...northern IL...southern WI and portions of northern Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262233Z - 270000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong storms capable of gusts as high as 50 mph may continue for another couple of hours this evening before weakening. A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A line of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms stretches from ear east-central IA northeastward through southern WI into northern Lower MI. These storms are occurring in a weakly to moderately unstable environment with MLCAPE values from 1500-2500 J/kg. Steep low level lapse rates and high PW values near 2 inches will largely support strong downburst winds. While the downstream airmass will remain unstable, weak effective shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will limit the longevity of the this organized line. Most recent radar data from KMKX shows an outflow boundary is currently surging ahead of the main line of storms. This will further act to weaken convection in the absence of a stronger cold pool and developing rear-inflow jet. Due to these factors, convection is likely near peak intensity and is expected to gradually weaken with south/southeastward extent over the next few hours.