Mesoscale discussion on Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388

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Mesoscale Discussion 1499
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern IA...Northern WI...Northern IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...

   Valid 252039Z - 252215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated
   tornado continues across the northern IL and southeast WI portions
   of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388.

   DISCUSSION...Well-developed convective line moved across eastern IA
   during the past hour and has recently moved into northwest IL.
   Current storm motion is eastward at about 45 kt. Strong wind gusts
   of 37 kt and 35 kt were measured at MLI and CWI, respectively. These
   measurements and recent radar signatures from KDVN suggest the
   strongest winds have not transferred to the surface thus far. The
   downstream airmass across north-central and northeast IL appears a
   bit more favorable for momentum transfer given the steeper low-level
   lapse rates and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Tornadoes also remain
   possible, although the veered low-level flow and largely
   unidirectional wind profiles sampled by recent LOT and ILX VAD
   profiles suggest the threat should remain isolated.


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